TY - JOUR TI - Artificial Intelligence Approach for Modeling and Forecasting Oil-Price Volatility AU - Al-Fattah, Saud M. T2 - SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering AB - Summary Oil market volatility affects macroeconomic conditions and can unduly affect the economies of oil-producing countries. Large price swings can be detrimental to producers and consumers, causing infrastructure and capacity investments to be delayed, employment losses, inefficient investments, and/or the growth potential for energy-producing countries to be adversely affected. Undoubtedly, greater stability of oil prices increases the certainty of oil markets for the benefit of oil consumers and producers. Therefore, modeling and forecasting crude-oil price volatility is a strategic endeavor for many oil market and investment applications. This paper focuses on the development of a new predictive model for describing and forecasting the behavior and dynamics of global oil-price volatility. Using a hybrid approach of artificial intelligence with a genetic algorithm (GA), artificial neural network (ANN), and data mining (DM) time-series (TS), a (GANNATS) model was developed to forecast the futures price volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. The WTI price volatility model was successfully designed, trained, verified, and tested using historical oil market data. The predictions from the GANNATS model closely matched the historical data of WTI futures price volatility. The model not only described the behavior and captured the dynamics of oil-price volatility, but also demonstrated the capability for predicting the direction of movements of oil market volatility with an accuracy of 88%. The model is applicable as a predictive tool for oil-price volatility and its direction of movements, benefiting oil producers, consumers, investors, and traders. It assists these key market players in making sound decisions and taking corrective courses of action for oil market stability, development strategies, and future investments; this could lead to increased profits and to reduced costs and market losses. In addition, this improved method for modeling oil-price volatility enables experts and market analysts to empirically test new approaches for mitigating market volatility. It also provides a roadmap for improving the predictability and accuracy of energy and crude models. DA - 2019/08/15/ PY - 2019 DO - 10.2118/195584-PA DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 22 IS - 03 SP - 817 EP - 826 LA - en SN - 1094-6470, 1930-0212 UR - https://onepetro.org/REE/article/22/03/817/207108/Artificial-Intelligence-Approach-for-Modeling-and Y2 - 2021/12/06/19:40:06 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A hybrid option pricing model using a neural network for estimating volatility AU - Amornwattana, Sunisa AU - Enke, David AU - Dagli, Cihan H. T2 - International Journal of General Systems DA - 2007/10// PY - 2007 DO - 10.1080/03081070701210303 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 36 IS - 5 SP - 558 EP - 573 J2 - International Journal of General Systems LA - en SN - 0308-1079, 1563-5104 UR - http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03081070701210303 Y2 - 2021/12/06/19:45:02 L4 - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=01496BFBC89E0645A7D83E1C4B920CF3?doi=10.1.1.578.5116&rep=rep1&type=pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - bibliometrix : An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis AU - Aria, Massimo AU - Cuccurullo, Corrado T2 - Journal of Informetrics DA - 2017/11// PY - 2017 DO - 10.1016/j.joi.2017.08.007 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 11 IS - 4 SP - 959 EP - 975 J2 - Journal of Informetrics LA - en SN - 17511577 ST - bibliometrix UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1751157717300500 Y2 - 2021/12/06/19:45:38 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Safety critical event prediction through unified analysis of driver and vehicle volatilities: Application of deep learning methods AU - Arvin, Ramin AU - Khattak, Asad J. AU - Qi, Hairong T2 - Accident Analysis & Prevention DA - 2021/03// PY - 2021 DO - 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105949 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 151 SP - 105949 J2 - Accident Analysis & Prevention LA - en SN - 00014575 ST - Safety critical event prediction through unified analysis of driver and vehicle volatilities UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0001457520317693 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:34:04 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A hybrid artificial neural network-GJR modeling approach to forecasting currency exchange rate volatility AU - Amo Baffour, Alexander AU - Feng, Jingchun AU - Taylor, Evans Kwesi T2 - Neurocomputing DA - 2019/11// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1016/j.neucom.2019.07.088 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 365 SP - 285 EP - 301 J2 - Neurocomputing LA - en SN - 09252312 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0925231219310951 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:36:40 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Direction-of-change forecasting using a volatility-based recurrent neural network AU - Bekiros, S. D. AU - Georgoutsos, D. A. T2 - Journal of Forecasting DA - 2008/08// PY - 2008 DO - 10.1002/for.1063 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 27 IS - 5 SP - 407 EP - 417 J2 - J. Forecast. LA - en SN - 02776693, 1099131X UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.1063 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:37:58 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting volatility in oil prices with a class of nonlinear volatility models: smooth transition RBF and MLP neural networks augmented GARCH approach AU - Bildirici, Melike AU - Ersin, Özgür T2 - Petroleum Science DA - 2015/08// PY - 2015 DO - 10.1007/s12182-015-0035-8 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 12 IS - 3 SP - 534 EP - 552 J2 - Pet. Sci. LA - en SN - 1672-5107, 1995-8226 ST - Forecasting volatility in oil prices with a class of nonlinear volatility models UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12182-015-0035-8 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:41:05 L4 - https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs12182-015-0035-8.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Realized Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks AU - Bucci, Andrea T2 - Journal of Financial Econometrics AB - Abstract In the last few decades, a broad strand of literature in finance has implemented artificial neural networks as a forecasting method. The major advantage of this approach is the possibility to approximate any linear and nonlinear behaviors without knowing the structure of the data generating process. This makes it suitable for forecasting time series which exhibit long-memory and nonlinear dependencies, like conditional volatility. In this article, the predictive performance of feed-forward and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) was compared, particularly focusing on the recently developed long short-term memory (LSTM) network and nonlinear autoregressive model process with eXogenous input (NARX) network, with traditional econometric approaches. The results show that RNNs are able to outperform all the traditional econometric methods. Additionally, capturing long-range dependence through LSTM and NARX models seems to improve the forecasting accuracy also in a highly volatile period. DA - 2020/06/01/ PY - 2020 DO - 10.1093/jjfinec/nbaa008 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 18 IS - 3 SP - 502 EP - 531 LA - en SN - 1479-8409, 1479-8417 UR - https://academic.oup.com/jfec/article/18/3/502/5856840 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:43:11 L4 - https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95443/1/MPRA_paper_95443.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting large scale conditional volatility and covariance using neural network on GPU AU - Cai, Xianggao AU - Lai, Guoming AU - Lin, Xiaola T2 - The Journal of Supercomputing DA - 2013/02// PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s11227-012-0827-1 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 63 IS - 2 SP - 490 EP - 507 J2 - J Supercomput LA - en SN - 0920-8542, 1573-0484 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11227-012-0827-1 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:44:52 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A neural network approach to understanding implied volatility movements AU - Cao, Jay AU - Chen, Jacky AU - Hull, John T2 - Quantitative Finance DA - 2020/09/01/ PY - 2020 DO - 10.1080/14697688.2020.1750679 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 20 IS - 9 SP - 1405 EP - 1413 J2 - Quantitative Finance LA - en SN - 1469-7688, 1469-7696 UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14697688.2020.1750679 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:50:08 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting volatility with support vector machine-based GARCH model AU - Chen, Shiyi AU - Härdle, Wolfgang K. AU - Jeong, Kiho T2 - Journal of Forecasting DA - 2009/// PY - 2009 DO - 10.1002/for.1134 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) SP - n/a EP - n/a J2 - J. Forecast. LA - en SN - 02776693, 1099131X UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.1134 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:51:40 ER - TY - JOUR TI - An artificial neural network augmented GARCH model for Islamic stock market volatility: Do asymmetry and long memory matter? AU - Chkili, Walid AU - Hamdi, Manel T2 - International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management AB - Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the volatility and forecast accuracy of the Islamic stock market for the period 1999–2017. This period is characterized by the occurrence of several economic and political events such as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack and the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach This study constructs a new hybrid generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model based on an artificial neural network (ANN). This model is applied to the daily Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index during the period June 1999–January 2017. Findings The in-sample results show that the volatility of the Islamic stock market can be better described by the fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH (FIAPARCH) approach that takes into account asymmetry and long memory features. Considering the out-of-sample analysis, this paper has applied a hybrid forecasting model, which combines the FIAPARCH approach and the ANN. Empirical results reveal that the proposed hybrid model (FIAPARCH-ANN) outperforms all other single models such as GARCH, fractional integrated GARCH and FIAPARCH in terms of all performance criteria used in the study. Practical implications The results have some implications for Islamic investors, portfolio managers and policymakers. These implications are related to the optimal portfolio diversification decision, the hedging strategy choice and the risk management analysis. Originality/value The paper develops a new framework that combines an ANN and FIAPARCH model that introduces two important features of time series, namely, asymmetry and long memory. DA - 2021/11/04/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.1108/IMEFM-05-2019-0204 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 14 IS - 5 SP - 853 EP - 873 J2 - IMEFM LA - en SN - 1753-8394, 1753-8394 ST - An artificial neural network augmented GARCH model for Islamic stock market volatility UR - https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IMEFM-05-2019-0204/full/html Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:52:30 ER - TY - CHAP TI - Engineering a Generalized Neural Network Mapping of Volatility Spillovers in European Government Bond Markets AU - Dash, Gordon H. AU - Kajiji, Nina T2 - Handbook of Financial Engineering A2 - Zopounidis, Constantin A2 - Doumpos, Michael A2 - Pardalos, Panos M. CY - Boston, MA DA - 2008/// PY - 2008 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 18 SP - 201 EP - 230 LA - en PB - Springer US SN - 978-0-387-76681-2 978-0-387-76682-9 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-0-387-76682-9_7 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:56:04 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Machine Learning in Finance: From Theory to Practice: by Matthew F. Dixon, Igor Halperin, and Paul Bilokon, Springer (2020). ISBN 978-3-030-41067-4. Paperback. AU - Coqueret, Guillaume T2 - Quantitative Finance DA - 2021/01/02/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.1080/14697688.2020.1828609 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 21 IS - 1 SP - 9 EP - 10 J2 - Quantitative Finance LA - en SN - 1469-7688, 1469-7696 ST - Machine Learning in Finance UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14697688.2020.1828609 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:56:53 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Improving multilayer perceptron neural network using chaotic grasshopper optimization algorithm to forecast iron ore price volatility AU - Ewees, Ahmed A. AU - Elaziz, Mohamed Abd AU - Alameer, Zakaria AU - Ye, Haiwang AU - Jianhua, Zhang T2 - Resources Policy DA - 2020/03// PY - 2020 DO - 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101555 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 65 SP - 101555 J2 - Resources Policy LA - en SN - 03014207 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301420719300832 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:59:18 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Pricing options with dual volatility input to modular neural networks AU - Fadda, Sadi T2 - Borsa Istanbul Review DA - 2020/09// PY - 2020 DO - 10.1016/j.bir.2020.03.002 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 20 IS - 3 SP - 269 EP - 278 J2 - Borsa Istanbul Review LA - en SN - 22148450 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214845020300168 Y2 - 2021/12/07/02:59:56 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A mine main fans switchover system with lower air flow volatility based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm AU - Ge, Hengqing AU - Xu, Guang AU - Huang, Jinxin AU - Ma, Xiaoping T2 - Advances in Mechanical Engineering AB - A reliable ventilation system is essential for maintaining a comfortable working environment and ensuring safety production in an underground coal mine. The automated fan switchover technique was developed for changing the main fan for maintenance with lower air flow volatility of underground mine in the switchover process. This article established the optimization model in the main fans switchover process, used the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the model, and achieved minimum air flow volatility in the fans switchover process. Compared to previous studies, computer simulations have shown that the proposed algorithm can effectively find the global optimal solution with less initial parameters and achieved lower air flow volatility in underground mine. The particle swarm optimization solution, searching diversity, prevents it from confining to local optimal solutions and enhances convergence. The reasonable step length is beneficial to reduce the air flow volatility and main fans switchover time. The air flow volatility is larger comparatively when some doors are nearly open or closed fully at the start–stop phase of the switchover process. A case application in a China’s domestic coal mine shows that the air flow volatility of the underground mine in the main fans switchover process is no more than 0.4%. DA - 2019/03// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1177/1687814019829281 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 11 IS - 3 SP - 168781401982928 J2 - Advances in Mechanical Engineering LA - en SN - 1687-8140, 1687-8140 UR - http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1687814019829281 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:06:51 L4 - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1687814019829281 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Machine learning in energy economics and finance: A review AU - Ghoddusi, Hamed AU - Creamer, Germán G. AU - Rafizadeh, Nima T2 - Energy Economics DA - 2019/06// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.05.006 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 81 SP - 709 EP - 727 J2 - Energy Economics LA - en SN - 01409883 ST - Machine learning in energy economics and finance UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988319301513 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:07:39 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting stock volatility process using improved least square support vector machine approach AU - Gong, Xiao-Li AU - Liu, Xi-Hua AU - Xiong, Xiong AU - Zhuang, Xin-Tian T2 - Soft Computing DA - 2019/11// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1007/s00500-018-03743-0 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 23 IS - 22 SP - 11867 EP - 11881 J2 - Soft Comput LA - en SN - 1432-7643, 1433-7479 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00500-018-03743-0 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:11:06 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Investor Confidence and Forecastability of US Stock Market Realized Volatility: Evidence from Machine Learning AU - Gupta, Rangan AU - Nel, Jacobus AU - Pierdzioch, Christian T2 - Journal of Behavioral Finance DA - 2021/07/10/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.1080/15427560.2021.1949719 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) SP - 1 EP - 12 J2 - Journal of Behavioral Finance LA - en SN - 1542-7560, 1542-7579 ST - Investor Confidence and Forecastability of US Stock Market Realized Volatility UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15427560.2021.1949719 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:12:31 L4 - https://www.up.ac.za/media/shared/61/WP/wp_2021_18.zp199890.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Using neural networks for forecasting volatility of S&P 500 Index futures prices AU - Hamid, Shaikh A. AU - Iqbal, Zahid T2 - Journal of Business Research DA - 2004/10// PY - 2004 DO - 10.1016/S0148-2963(03)00043-2 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 57 IS - 10 SP - 1116 EP - 1125 J2 - Journal of Business Research LA - en SN - 01482963 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0148296303000432 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:14:16 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Employing machine learning techniques to assess requirement change volatility AU - Hein, Phyo Htet AU - Kames, Elisabeth AU - Chen, Cheng AU - Morkos, Beshoy T2 - Research in Engineering Design AB - Abstract Lack of planning when changing requirements to reflect stakeholders’ expectations can lead to propagated changes that can cause project failures. Existing tools cannot provide the formal reasoning required to manage requirement change and minimize unanticipated change propagation. This research explores machine learning techniques to predict requirement change volatility (RCV) using complex network metrics based on the premise that requirement networks can be utilized to study change propagation. Three research questions (RQs) are addressed: (1) Can RCV be measured through four classes namely, multiplier, absorber, transmitter, and robust, during every instance of change? (2) Can complex network metrics be explored and computed for each requirement during every instance of change? (3) Can machine learning techniques, specifically, multilabel learning (MLL) methods be employed to predict RCV using complex network metrics? RCV in this paper quantifies volatility for change propagation, that is, how requirements behave in response to the initial change. A multiplier is a requirement that is changed by an initial change and propagates change to other requirements. An absorber is a requirement that is changed by an initial change, but does not propagate change to other requirements. A transmitter is a requirement that is not changed by an initial change, but propagates change to other requirements. A robust requirement is a requirement that is not changed by an initial change and does not propagate change to other requirements. RCV is determined using industrial data and requirement network relationships obtained from previously developed Refined Automated Requirement Change Propagation Prediction (R-ARCPP) tool. Useful complex network metrics in highest performing machine learning models are discussed along with the limitations and future directions of this research. DA - 2021/04// PY - 2021 DO - 10.1007/s00163-020-00353-6 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 32 IS - 2 SP - 245 EP - 269 J2 - Res Eng Design LA - en SN - 0934-9839, 1435-6066 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00163-020-00353-6 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:15:17 L4 - https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00163-020-00353-6.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Deep learning volatility: a deep neural network perspective on pricing and calibration in (rough) volatility models AU - Horvath, Blanka AU - Muguruza, Aitor AU - Tomas, Mehdi T2 - Quantitative Finance DA - 2021/01/02/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.1080/14697688.2020.1817974 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 21 IS - 1 SP - 11 EP - 27 J2 - Quantitative Finance LA - en SN - 1469-7688, 1469-7696 ST - Deep learning volatility UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14697688.2020.1817974 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:16:19 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A hybrid deep learning approach by integrating LSTM-ANN networks with GARCH model for copper price volatility prediction AU - Hu, Yan AU - Ni, Jian AU - Wen, Liu T2 - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications DA - 2020/11// PY - 2020 DO - 10.1016/j.physa.2020.124907 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 557 SP - 124907 J2 - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications LA - en SN - 03784371 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378437120304696 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:17:20 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Adaptive Fuzzy-GARCH model applied to forecasting the volatility of stock markets using particle swarm optimization AU - Hung, Jui-Chung T2 - Information Sciences DA - 2011/10// PY - 2011 DO - 10.1016/j.ins.2011.02.027 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 181 IS - 20 SP - 4673 EP - 4683 J2 - Information Sciences LA - en SN - 00200255 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0020025511001095 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:18:11 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Robust Kalman filter based on a fuzzy GARCH model to forecast volatility using particle swarm optimization AU - Hung, Jui-Chung T2 - Soft Computing DA - 2015/10// PY - 2015 DO - 10.1007/s00500-014-1447-x DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 19 IS - 10 SP - 2861 EP - 2869 J2 - Soft Comput LA - en SN - 1432-7643, 1433-7479 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00500-014-1447-x Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:19:09 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Classifying the Level of Bid Price Volatility Based on Machine Learning with Parameters from Bid Documents as Risk Factors AU - Jang, YeEun AU - Son, JeongWook AU - Yi, June-Seong T2 - Sustainability AB - The purpose of this study is to classify the bid price volatility level with machine learning and parameters from bid documents as risk factors. To this end, we studied project-oriented risk factors affecting the bid price and pre-bid clarification document as the uncertainty of bid documents through preliminary research. The authors collected Caltrans’s bid summary and pre-bid clarification document from 2011–2018 as data samples. To train the classification model, the data were preprocessed to create a final dataset of 269 projects consisting of input and output parameters. The projects in which the bid inquiries were not resolved in the pre-bid clarification had higher bid averages and bid ranges than the risk-resolved projects. Besides this, regarding the two classification models with neural network (NN) algorithms, Model 2, which included the uncertainty in the bid documents as a parameter, predicted the bid average risk and bid range risk more accurately (52.5% and 72.5%, respectively) than Model 1 (26.4% and 23.3%, respectively). The accuracy of Model 2 was verified with 40 verification test datasets. DA - 2021/04/01/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.3390/su13073886 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 13 IS - 7 SP - 3886 J2 - Sustainability LA - en SN - 2071-1050 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3886 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:19:58 L4 - https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3886/pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - European call price modelling using neural networks in considering volatility as stochastic with comparison to the Heston model AU - Jerbi, Yacin AU - Chaabene, Samira T2 - Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation DA - 2020/07/02/ PY - 2020 DO - 10.1080/00949655.2020.1747463 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 90 IS - 10 SP - 1793 EP - 1810 J2 - Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation LA - en SN - 0094-9655, 1563-5163 UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00949655.2020.1747463 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:21:12 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting Volatility of Stock Index: Deep Learning Model with Likelihood-Based Loss Function AU - Jia, Fang AU - Yang, Boli T2 - Complexity A2 - Tabak, Benjamin Miranda AB - Volatility is widely used in different financial areas, and forecasting the volatility of financial assets can be valuable. In this paper, we use deep neural network (DNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) model to forecast the volatility of stock index. Most related research studies use distance loss function to train the machine learning models, and they gain two disadvantages. The first one is that they introduce errors when using estimated volatility to be the forecasting target, and the second one is that their models cannot be compared to econometric models fairly. To solve these two problems, we further introduce a likelihood-based loss function to train the deep learning models and test all the models by the likelihood of the test sample. The results show that our deep learning models with likelihood-based loss function can forecast volatility more precisely than the econometric model and the deep learning models with distance loss function, and the LSTM model is the better one in the two deep learning models with likelihood-based loss function. DA - 2021/02/25/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.1155/2021/5511802 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 2021 SP - 1 EP - 13 J2 - Complexity LA - en SN - 1099-0526, 1076-2787 ST - Forecasting Volatility of Stock Index UR - https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/5511802/ Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:22:18 L4 - https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/5511802.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting Foreign Exchange Volatility Using Deep Learning Autoencoder-LSTM Techniques AU - Jung, Gunho AU - Choi, Sun-Yong T2 - Complexity A2 - Tabak, Benjamin Miranda AB - Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, the foreign exchange (FX) market has become an important focus of both academic and practical research. There are many reasons why FX is important, but one of most important aspects is the determination of foreign investment values. Therefore, FX serves as the backbone of international investments and global trading. Additionally, because fluctuations in FX affect the value of imported and exported goods and services, such fluctuations have an important impact on the economic competitiveness of multinational corporations and countries. Therefore, the volatility of FX rates is a major concern for scholars and practitioners. Forecasting FX volatility is a crucial financial problem that is attracting significant attention based on its diverse implications. Recently, various deep learning models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely employed in finance and economics, particularly for forecasting volatility. The main goal of this study was to predict FX volatility effectively using ANN models. To this end, we propose a hybrid model that combines the long short-term memory (LSTM) and autoencoder models. These deep learning models are known to perform well in time-series prediction for forecasting FX volatility. Therefore, we expect that our approach will be suitable for FX volatility prediction because it combines the merits of these two models. Methodologically, we employ the Foreign Exchange Volatility Index (FXVIX) as a measure of FX volatility. In particular, the three major FXVIX indices (EUVIX, BPVIX, and JYVIX) from 2010 to 2019 are considered, and we predict future prices using the proposed hybrid model. Our hybrid model utilizes an LSTM model as an encoder and decoder inside an autoencoder network. Additionally, we investigate FXVIX indices through subperiod analysis to examine how the proposed model’s forecasting performance is influenced by data distributions and outliers. Based on the empirical results, we can conclude that the proposed hybrid method, which we call the autoencoder-LSTM model, outperforms the traditional LSTM method. Additionally, the ability to learn the magnitude of data spread and singularities determines the accuracy of predictions made using deep learning models. In summary, this study established that FX volatility can be accurately predicted using a combination of deep learning models. Our findings have important implications for practitioners. Because forecasting volatility is an essential task for financial decision-making, this study will enable traders and policymakers to hedge or invest efficiently and make policy decisions based on volatility forecasting. DA - 2021/03/31/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.1155/2021/6647534 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 2021 SP - 1 EP - 16 J2 - Complexity LA - en SN - 1099-0526, 1076-2787 UR - https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6647534/ Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:25:03 L4 - https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6647534.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Deep learning models for forecasting and analyzing the implications of COVID-19 spread on some commodities markets volatilities AU - Sadefo Kamdem, Jules AU - Bandolo Essomba, Rose AU - Njong Berinyuy, James T2 - Chaos, Solitons & Fractals DA - 2020/11// PY - 2020 DO - 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110215 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 140 SP - 110215 J2 - Chaos, Solitons & Fractals LA - en SN - 09600779 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960077920306111 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:26:03 L4 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7437517/pdf/main.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Neural network heterogeneous autoregressive models for realized volatility AU - Kim, Jaiyool AU - Baek, Changryong T2 - Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods DA - 2018/11/30/ PY - 2018 DO - 10.29220/CSAM.2018.25.6.659 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 25 IS - 6 SP - 659 EP - 671 J2 - CSAM LA - en SN - 2383-4757 UR - http://www.csam.or.kr/journal/view.html?doi=10.29220/CSAM.2018.25.6.659 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:29:08 L4 - http://www.csam.or.kr/journal/download_pdf.php?doi=10.29220/CSAM.2018.25.6.659 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A dynamic target volatility strategy for asset allocation using artificial neural networks AU - Kim, Youngmin AU - Enke, David T2 - The Engineering Economist DA - 2018/10/02/ PY - 2018 DO - 10.1080/0013791X.2018.1461287 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 63 IS - 4 SP - 273 EP - 290 J2 - The Engineering Economist LA - en SN - 0013-791X, 1547-2701 UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0013791X.2018.1461287 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:29:47 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Gold price volatility: A forecasting approach using the Artificial Neural Network–GARCH model AU - Kristjanpoller, Werner AU - Minutolo, Marcel C. T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2015/11// PY - 2015 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2015.04.058 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 42 IS - 20 SP - 7245 EP - 7251 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 ST - Gold price volatility UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0957417415003000 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:30:52 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting volatility of oil price using an artificial neural network-GARCH model AU - Kristjanpoller, Werner AU - Minutolo, Marcel C. T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2016/12// PY - 2016 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2016.08.045 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 65 SP - 233 EP - 241 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0957417416304420 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:31:40 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A hybrid volatility forecasting framework integrating GARCH, artificial neural network, technical analysis and principal components analysis AU - Kristjanpoller, Werner AU - Minutolo, Marcel C. T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2018/11// PY - 2018 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2018.05.011 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 109 SP - 1 EP - 11 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S095741741830294X Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:33:43 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Volatility forecast using hybrid Neural Network models AU - Kristjanpoller, Werner AU - Fadic, Anton AU - Minutolo, Marcel C. T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2014/04// PY - 2014 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.09.043 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 41 IS - 5 SP - 2437 EP - 2442 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0957417413007975 Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:34:24 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Performance of Deep Learning in Prediction of Stock Market Volatility AU - Moon, Kyoung-Sook AU - Kim, Hongjoong T2 - ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH DA - 2019/06/16/ PY - 2019 DO - 10.24818/18423264/53.2.19.05 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 53 IS - 2/2019 SP - 77 EP - 92 J2 - ECECSR SN - 0424-267X, 1842-3264 UR - http://ecocyb.ase.ro/nr2019_2/5.%20Kyoung-Sook%20MOON,Hongjoong%20KIM%20(T).pdf Y2 - 2021/12/07/03:35:43 L4 - http://ecocyb.ase.ro/nr2019_2/5.%20Kyoung-Sook%20MOON,Hongjoong%20KIM%20(T).pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - On stock volatility forecasting based on text mining and deep learning under high‐frequency data AU - Lei, Bolin AU - Liu, Zhengdi AU - Song, Yuping T2 - Journal of Forecasting DA - 2021/12// PY - 2021 DO - 10.1002/for.2794 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 40 IS - 8 SP - 1596 EP - 1610 J2 - Journal of Forecasting LA - en SN - 0277-6693, 1099-131X UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.2794 Y2 - 2021/12/07/13:01:16 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Volatility Forecasting for High-Frequency Financial Data Based on Web Search Index and Deep Learning Model AU - Lei, Bolin AU - Zhang, Boyu AU - Song, Yuping T2 - Mathematics AB - The existing index system for volatility forecasting only focuses on asset return series or historical volatility, and the prediction model cannot effectively describe the highly complex and nonlinear characteristics of the stock market. In this study, we construct an investor attention factor through a Baidu search index of antecedent keywords, and then combine other trading information such as the trading volume, trend indicator, quote change rate, etc., as input indicators, and finally employ the deep learning model via temporal convolutional networks (TCN) to forecast the volatility under high-frequency financial data. We found that the prediction accuracy of the TCN model with investor attention is better than those of the TCN model without investor attention, the traditional econometric model as the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV), autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models, and the long short-term memory (LSTM) model with investor attention. Compared with the traditional econometric models, the multi-step prediction results for the TCN model remain robust. Our findings provide a more accurate and robust method for volatility forecasting for big data and enrich the index system of volatility forecasting. DA - 2021/02/05/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.3390/math9040320 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 9 IS - 4 SP - 320 J2 - Mathematics LA - en SN - 2227-7390 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/4/320 Y2 - 2021/12/07/13:02:37 L4 - https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/4/320/pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - The role of news sentiment in oil futures returns and volatility forecasting: Data-decomposition based deep learning approach AU - Li, Yuze AU - Jiang, Shangrong AU - Li, Xuerong AU - Wang, Shouyang T2 - Energy Economics DA - 2021/03// PY - 2021 DO - 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105140 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 95 SP - 105140 J2 - Energy Economics LA - en SN - 01409883 ST - The role of news sentiment in oil futures returns and volatility forecasting UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988321000451 Y2 - 2021/12/07/13:05:15 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Exchange Rate Volatility Forecasting by Hybrid Neural Network Markov Switching Beta-t-EGARCH AU - Liao, Ruofan AU - Yamaka, Woraphon AU - Sriboonchitta, Songsak T2 - IEEE Access DA - 2020/// PY - 2020 DO - 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3038564 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 8 SP - 207563 EP - 207574 J2 - IEEE Access SN - 2169-3536 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9261362/ Y2 - 2021/12/07/13:06:07 L4 - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/6287639/8948470/09261362.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Pricing Options and Computing Implied Volatilities using Neural Networks AU - Liu, Shuaiqiang AU - Oosterlee, Cornelis AU - Bohte, Sander T2 - Risks AB - This paper proposes a data-driven approach, by means of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to value financial options and to calculate implied volatilities with the aim of accelerating the corresponding numerical methods. With ANNs being universal function approximators, this method trains an optimized ANN on a data set generated by a sophisticated financial model, and runs the trained ANN as an agent of the original solver in a fast and efficient way. We test this approach on three different types of solvers, including the analytic solution for the Black-Scholes equation, the COS method for the Heston stochastic volatility model and Brent’s iterative root-finding method for the calculation of implied volatilities. The numerical results show that the ANN solver can reduce the computing time significantly. DA - 2019/02/09/ PY - 2019 DO - 10.3390/risks7010016 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 7 IS - 1 SP - 16 J2 - Risks LA - en SN - 2227-9091 UR - http://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/7/1/16 Y2 - 2021/12/07/13:10:28 L4 - https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/7/1/16/pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Novel volatility forecasting using deep learning–Long Short Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks AU - Liu, Yang T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2019/10// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2019.04.038 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 132 SP - 99 EP - 109 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0957417419302635 Y2 - 2021/12/07/13:13:11 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Volatility Degree Forecasting of Stock Market by Stochastic Time Strength Neural Network AU - Mo, Haiyan AU - Wang, Jun T2 - Mathematical Problems in Engineering AB - In view of the applications of artificial neural networks in economic and financial forecasting, a stochastic time strength function is introduced in the backpropagation neural network model to predict the fluctuations of stock price changes. In this model, stochastic time strength function gives a weight for each historical datum and makes the model have the effect of random movement, and then we investigate and forecast the behavior of volatility degrees of returns for the Chinese stock market indexes and some global market indexes. The empirical research is performed in testing the prediction effect of SSE, SZSE, HSI, DJIA, IXIC, and S&P 500 with different selected volatility degrees in the established model. DA - 2013/// PY - 2013 DO - 10.1155/2013/436795 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 2013 SP - 1 EP - 11 J2 - Mathematical Problems in Engineering LA - en SN - 1024-123X, 1563-5147 UR - http://www.hindawi.com/journals/mpe/2013/436795/ Y2 - 2021/12/07/13:16:08 L4 - https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/mpe/2013/436795.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Prediction accuracy improvement for Bitcoin market prices based on symmetric volatility information using artificial neural network approach AU - Othman, Anwar Hasan Abdullah AU - Kassim, Salina AU - Rosman, Romzie Bin AU - Redzuan, Nur Harena Binti T2 - Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management DA - 2020/10// PY - 2020 DO - 10.1057/s41272-020-00229-3 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 19 IS - 5 SP - 314 EP - 330 J2 - J Revenue Pricing Manag LA - en SN - 1476-6930, 1477-657X UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41272-020-00229-3 Y2 - 2021/12/07/13:17:15 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Comments and further improvements on “pth moment stability of stochastic neural networks with Markov volatilities” AU - Zhu, Enwen AU - Yang, Gang AU - Liu, Jun T2 - Neural Computing and Applications DA - 2013/09// PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s00521-013-1396-9 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 23 IS - 3-4 SP - 1179 EP - 1183 J2 - Neural Comput & Applic LA - en SN - 0941-0643, 1433-3058 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00521-013-1396-9 Y2 - 2021/12/06/19:59:08 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A neural network enhanced volatility component model AU - Zhai, Jia AU - Cao, Yi AU - Liu, Xiaoquan T2 - Quantitative Finance DA - 2020/05/03/ PY - 2020 DO - 10.1080/14697688.2019.1711148 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 20 IS - 5 SP - 783 EP - 797 J2 - Quantitative Finance LA - en SN - 1469-7688, 1469-7696 UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14697688.2019.1711148 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/60139/1/Xiaoquan-merged.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Online adaptive machine learning based algorithm for implied volatility surface modeling AU - Zeng, Yaxiong AU - Klabjan, Diego T2 - Knowledge-Based Systems DA - 2019/01// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1016/j.knosys.2018.08.039 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 163 SP - 376 EP - 391 J2 - Knowledge-Based Systems LA - en SN - 09507051 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0950705118304350 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.01833 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Big data analytics for financial Market volatility forecast based on support vector machine AU - Yang, Rongjun AU - Yu, Lin AU - Zhao, Yuanjun AU - Yu, Hongxin AU - Xu, Guiping AU - Wu, Yiting AU - Liu, Zhengkai T2 - International Journal of Information Management DA - 2020/02// PY - 2020 DO - 10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2019.05.027 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 50 SP - 452 EP - 462 J2 - International Journal of Information Management LA - en SN - 02684012 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0268401218313604 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - CONF TI - Stock volatility prediction based on convolutional neural network AU - Xu, Lili T2 - BASIC & CLINICAL PHARMACOLOGY & TOXICOLOGY DA - 2021/// PY - 2021 VL - 128 SP - 178 EP - 178 PB - WILEY 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN - 1742-7835 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Development of a simple unified volatility-based scheme (SUVS) for secondary organic aerosol formation using genetic algorithms AU - Xia, A. G. AU - Stroud, C. A. AU - Makar, P. A. T2 - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics AB - Abstract. A new method is proposed to simplify complex atmospheric chemistry reaction schemes, while preserving SOA formation properties, using genetic algorithms. The method is first applied in this study to the gas-phase α-pinene oxidation scheme. The simple unified volatility-based scheme (SUVS) reflects the multi-generation evolution of chemical species from a near-explicit master chemical mechanism (MCM) and, at the same time, uses the volatility-basis set speciation for condensable products. The SUVS also unifies reactions between SOA precursors with different oxidants under different atmospheric conditions. A total of 412 unknown parameters (product yields of parameterized products, reaction rates, etc.) from the SUVS are estimated by using genetic algorithms operating on the detailed mechanism. The number of organic species was reduced from 310 in the detailed mechanism to 31 in the SUVS. Output species profiles, obtained from the original subset of the MCM reaction scheme for α-pinene oxidation, are reproduced with maximum fractional error at 0.10 for scenarios under a wide range of ambient HC/NOx conditions. Ultimately, the same SUVS with updated parameters could be used to describe the SOA formation from different precursors. DA - 2011/07/01/ PY - 2011 DO - 10.5194/acp-11-6185-2011 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 11 IS - 13 SP - 6185 EP - 6205 J2 - Atmos. Chem. Phys. LA - en SN - 1680-7324 UR - https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/6185/2011/ Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/6185/2011/acp-11-6185-2011.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - AN ADAPTIVE EXPECTATION GENETIC ALGORITHM BASED ON ANFIS AND MULTINATIONAL STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY CAUSALITY FOR TAIEX FORECASTING AU - Wei, Liang-Ying T2 - Cybernetics and Systems DA - 2012/06// PY - 2012 DO - 10.1080/01969722.2012.688687 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 43 IS - 5 SP - 410 EP - 425 J2 - Cybernetics and Systems LA - en SN - 0196-9722, 1087-6553 UR - http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01969722.2012.688687 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Determining the invoicing dates for raw material order and finish product dispatch using neural networks under exchange rate volatility AU - Weerasingha, Janith Piyumal AU - Bandara, Yapa Mahinda AU - Edirisinghe, Pasan Manuranga T2 - International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications DA - 2021/07/03/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.1080/13675567.2021.1945018 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) SP - 1 EP - 21 J2 - International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications LA - en SN - 1367-5567, 1469-848X UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13675567.2021.1945018 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Stock Volatility Prediction by Hybrid Neural Network AU - Wang, Yujie AU - Liu, Hui AU - Guo, Qiang AU - Xie, Shenxiang AU - Zhang, Xiaofeng T2 - IEEE Access DA - 2019/// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2949074 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 7 SP - 154524 EP - 154534 J2 - IEEE Access SN - 2169-3536 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8880597/ Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/6287639/8600701/08880597.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Using neural network for forecasting TXO price under different volatility models AU - Wang, Ching-Ping AU - Lin, Shin-Hung AU - Huang, Hung-Hsi AU - Wu, Pei-Chen T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2012/04// PY - 2012 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.11.038 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 39 IS - 5 SP - 5025 EP - 5032 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0957417411015818 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - A support vector machine based MSM model for financial short-term volatility forecasting AU - Wang, Baohua AU - Huang, Hejiao AU - Wang, Xiaolong T2 - Neural Computing and Applications AB - Financial time series forecasting has become a challenge because of its long-memory, thick tails and volatility persistence. Multifractal process has recently been proposed as a new formalism for this problem. An iterative Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) model was introduced to the literature. It is able to capture many of the important stylized features of the financial time series, including long-memory in volatility, volatility clustering, and return outliers. The model delivers stronger performance both in- and out-of-sample than GARCH-type models in long-term forecasts. To enhance MSM’s short-term prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a support vector machine (SVM) based MSM approach which exploits MSM model to forecast volatility and SVM to model the innovations. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach, two stock indexes in the Chinese A-share market are chosen as the forecasting targets. Comparing with some existing state-of-the-art models, the proposed approach gives superior results. It indicates that the proposed model provides a promising alternative to financial short-term volatility prediction. DA - 2013/01/01/ PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s00521-011-0742-z DP - Springer Link VL - 22 IS - 1 SP - 21 EP - 28 J2 - Neural Comput & Applic LA - en SN - 1433-3058 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-011-0742-z Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Intelligent financial management of company based on neural network and fuzzy volatility evaluation AU - Wang, Aiqun AU - Liu, Yaona T2 - Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems AB - By integrating business processes, financial intelligent management system can provide effective data information with high quality and low cost for strategic decision-making. In this paper, the authors analyze the intelligent financial management of DA - 2020/01/01/ PY - 2020 DO - 10.3233/JIFS-179798 DP - content.iospress.com VL - 38 IS - 6 SP - 7215 EP - 7228 LA - en SN - 1064-1246 UR - https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-intelligent-and-fuzzy-systems/ifs179798 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L2 - https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-intelligent-and-fuzzy-systems/ifs179798 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Implied volatility directional forecasting: a machine learning approach AU - Vrontos, Spyridon D. AU - Galakis, John AU - Vrontos, Ioannis D. T2 - Quantitative Finance DA - 2021/10/03/ PY - 2021 DO - 10.1080/14697688.2021.1905869 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 21 IS - 10 SP - 1687 EP - 1706 J2 - Quantitative Finance LA - en SN - 1469-7688, 1469-7696 ST - Implied volatility directional forecasting UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14697688.2021.1905869 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14697688.2021.1905869?needAccess=true ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting realized volatility: HAR against Principal Components Combining, neural networks and GARCH AU - Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. T2 - Research in International Business and Finance T3 - Special Issue articles on Finance Reconsidered edited by Dr. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot and Dr. Bernard Paranque, Special issue articles on Recent trends and challenges in financial and commodity markets Edited by Prof. Fredj Jawadi and Prof. Benoît Sevi & Special Issue articles on Recent Topics in Banking and Finance: New Findings and Implications Edited by Prof. Fredj Jawadi and Prof. Wael Louhichi AB - This paper examines whether nonlinear models, like Principal Components Combining, neural networks and GARCH are more accurate on realized volatility forecasting than the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model. The answer is no. The realized volatility property of persistence is too important to leave out of a realized volatility forecasting model. However, the Principal Components Combining model is ranked very close to HAR. Analysis is implemented in seven US financial markets: spot equity, spot foreign exchange rates, exchange traded funds, equity index futures, US Treasury bonds futures, energy futures, and commodities options. DA - 2017/01/01/ PY - 2017 DO - 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.01.004 DP - ScienceDirect VL - 39 SP - 824 EP - 839 J2 - Research in International Business and Finance LA - en SN - 0275-5319 ST - Forecasting realized volatility UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531915000057 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L2 - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0275531915000057 KW - Forecasting KW - Neural networks KW - Principal Components Combining ER - TY - JOUR TI - Financial volatility trading using a self-organising neural-fuzzy semantic network and option straddle-based approach AU - Tung, W.L. AU - Quek, C. T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2011/05// PY - 2011 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2010.07.116 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 38 IS - 5 SP - 4668 EP - 4688 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S095741741000744X Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc7126939?pdf=render ER - TY - JOUR TI - Artificial neural network model of the hybrid EGARCH volatility of the Taiwan stock index option prices AU - Tseng, Chih-Hsiung AU - Cheng, Sheng-Tzong AU - Wang, Yi-Hsien AU - Peng, Jin-Tang T2 - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications DA - 2008/05// PY - 2008 DO - 10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.074 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 387 IS - 13 SP - 3192 EP - 3200 J2 - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications LA - en SN - 03784371 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378437108000320 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Financial volatility trading using recurrent neural networks AU - Tino, P. AU - Schittenkopf, C. AU - Dorffner, G. T2 - IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks DA - 2001/07// PY - 2001 DO - 10.1109/72.935096 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 12 IS - 4 SP - 865 EP - 874 J2 - IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. SN - 10459227 UR - http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/935096/ Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting volatility based on wavelet support vector machine AU - Tang, Ling-Bing AU - Tang, Ling-Xiao AU - Sheng, Huan-Ye T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2009/03// PY - 2009 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2008.01.047 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 36 IS - 2 SP - 2901 EP - 2909 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0957417408000511 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Calibrating rough volatility models: a convolutional neural network approach AU - Stone, Henry T2 - Quantitative Finance DA - 2020/03/03/ PY - 2020 DO - 10.1080/14697688.2019.1654126 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 20 IS - 3 SP - 379 EP - 392 J2 - Quantitative Finance LA - en SN - 1469-7688, 1469-7696 ST - Calibrating rough volatility models UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14697688.2019.1654126 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.05315 ER - TY - CHAP TI - Forecasting the Volatility of Stock Index Returns: A Stochastic Neural Network Approach AU - Slim, Chokri T2 - Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2004 A2 - Laganá, Antonio A2 - Gavrilova, Marina L. A2 - Kumar, Vipin A2 - Mun, Youngsong A2 - Tan, C. J. Kenneth A2 - Gervasi, Osvaldo A3 - Kanade, Takeo A3 - Kittler, Josef A3 - Kleinberg, Jon M. A3 - Mattern, Friedemann A3 - Mitchell, John C. A3 - Nierstrasz, Oscar A3 - Pandu Rangan, C. A3 - Steffen, Bernhard A3 - Sudan, Madhu A3 - Terzopoulos, Demetri A3 - Tygar, Dough A3 - Vardi, Moshe Y. A3 - Weikum, Gerhard CY - Berlin, Heidelberg DA - 2004/// PY - 2004 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 3045 SP - 935 EP - 944 PB - Springer Berlin Heidelberg SN - 978-3-540-22057-2 978-3-540-24767-8 ST - Forecasting the Volatility of Stock Index Returns UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-540-24767-8_98 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Hybrid Forecasting Models Based on the Neural Networks for the Volatility of Bitcoin AU - Seo, Monghwan AU - Kim, Geonwoo T2 - Applied Sciences AB - In this paper, we study the volatility forecasts in the Bitcoin market, which has become popular in the global market in recent years. Since the volatility forecasts help trading decisions of traders who want a profit, the volatility forecasting is an important task in the market. For the improvement of the forecasting accuracy of Bitcoin’s volatility, we develop the hybrid forecasting models combining the GARCH family models with the machine learning (ML) approach. Specifically, we adopt Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Higher Order Neural Network (HONN) for the ML approach and construct the hybrid models using the outputs of the GARCH models and several relevant variables as input variables. We carry out many experiments based on the proposed models and compare the forecasting accuracy of the models. In addition, we provide the Model Confidence Set (MCS) test to find statistically the best model. The results show that the hybrid models based on HONN provide more accurate forecasts than the other models. DA - 2020/07/10/ PY - 2020 DO - 10.3390/app10144768 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 10 IS - 14 SP - 4768 J2 - Applied Sciences LA - en SN - 2076-3417 UR - https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/14/4768 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/applsci/applsci-10-04768/article_deploy/applsci-10-04768-v2.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Volatility Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and a Hybrid Genetic Algorithm AU - Santamaría-Bonfil, Guillermo AU - Frausto-Solís, Juan AU - Vázquez-Rodarte, Ignacio T2 - Computational Economics AB - Volatility forecasting is an important process required to measure variability in equity prices, risk management, and several other financial activities. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic methods $$(\textit{GARCH})$$have been used to forecast volatility with reasonable success due unreal assumptions about volatility underlying process. Recently, a supervised learning machine called support vector regression $$(SVR)$$has been employed to forecast financial volatility. Nevertheless, the quality and stability of the model obtained through $$SVR$$training process depend strongly on the selection of $$SVR$$parameters. Typically, these are tuned by a grid search method $$(SVR_{GS})$$; however, this tuning procedure is prone to get trapped on local optima, requires a priori information, and it does not concurrently tune the kernels and its parameters. This paper presents a new method called $$SVR_{GBC}$$for the financial volatility forecasting problem which selects simultaneously the proper kernel and its parameter values. $$SVR_{GBC}$$is a hybrid genetic algorithm which uses several genetic operators to enhance the exploration of solutions space: it introduces a new genetic operator called Boltzmann selection, and the use of several random number generators. Experimental data correspond to two ASEAN and two latinoamerican market indexes. $$SVR_{GBC}$$results are compared against $$\textit{GARCH}\left( 1,1\right) \hbox { and }SVR_{GS}$$method. It uses the mean absolute percentage error and directional accuracy functions for measuring quality results. Experimentation shows that, in general, $$SVR_{GBC}$$overcomes quality of $$\textit{GARCH}\left( 1,1\right) \hbox { and }SVR_{GS}$$. DA - 2015/01/01/ PY - 2015 DO - 10.1007/s10614-013-9411-x DP - Springer Link VL - 45 IS - 1 SP - 111 EP - 133 J2 - Comput Econ LA - en SN - 1572-9974 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-013-9411-x Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting volatility with a stacked model based on a hybridized Artificial Neural Network AU - Ramos-Pérez, Eduardo AU - Alonso-González, Pablo J. AU - Núñez-Velázquez, José Javier T2 - Expert Systems with Applications DA - 2019/09// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1016/j.eswa.2019.03.046 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 129 SP - 1 EP - 9 J2 - Expert Systems with Applications LA - en SN - 09574174 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0957417419302209 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.16383 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Defining and Predicting Pain Volatility in Users of the Manage My Pain App: Analysis Using Data Mining and Machine Learning Methods AU - Rahman, Quazi Abidur AU - Janmohamed, Tahir AU - Pirbaglou, Meysam AU - Clarke, Hance AU - Ritvo, Paul AU - Heffernan, Jane M. AU - Katz, Joel T2 - Journal of Medical Internet Research AB - Background: Measuring and predicting pain volatility (fluctuation or variability in pain scores over time) can help improve pain management. Perceptions of pain and its consequent disabling effects are often heightened under the conditions of greater uncertainty and unpredictability associated with pain volatility. Objective: This study aimed to use data mining and machine learning methods to (1) define a new measure of pain volatility and (2) predict future pain volatility levels from users of the pain management app, Manage My Pain, based on demographic, clinical, and app use features. Methods: Pain volatility was defined as the mean of absolute changes between 2 consecutive self-reported pain severity scores within the observation periods. The k-means clustering algorithm was applied to users’ pain volatility scores at the first and sixth month of app use to establish a threshold discriminating low from high volatility classes. Subsequently, we extracted 130 demographic, clinical, and app usage features from the first month of app use to predict these 2 volatility classes at the sixth month of app use. Prediction models were developed using 4 methods: (1) logistic regression with ridge estimators; (2) logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator; (3) Random Forests; and (4) Support Vector Machines. Overall prediction accuracy and accuracy for both classes were calculated to compare the performance of the prediction models. Training and testing were conducted using 5-fold cross validation. A class imbalance issue was addressed using a random subsampling of the training dataset. Users with at least five pain records in both the predictor and outcome periods (N=782 users) are included in the analysis. Results: k-means clustering algorithm was applied to pain volatility scores to establish a threshold of 1.6 to differentiate between low and high volatility classes. After validating the threshold using random subsamples, 2 classes were created: low volatility (n=611) and high volatility (n=171). In this class-imbalanced dataset, all 4 prediction models achieved 78.1% (611/782) to 79.0% (618/782) in overall accuracy. However, all models have a prediction accuracy of less than 18.7% (32/171) for the high volatility class. After addressing the class imbalance issue using random subsampling, results improved across all models for the high volatility class to greater than 59.6% (102/171). The prediction model based on Random Forests performs the best as it consistently achieves approximately 70% accuracy for both classes across 3 random subsamples. Conclusions: We propose a novel method for measuring pain volatility. Cluster analysis was applied to divide users into subsets of low and high volatility classes. These classes were then predicted at the sixth month of app use with an acceptable degree of accuracy using machine learning methods based on the features extracted from demographic, clinical, and app use information from the first month. DA - 2018/11/15/ PY - 2018 DO - 10.2196/12001 DP - www.jmir.org VL - 20 IS - 11 SP - e12001 LA - EN ST - Defining and Predicting Pain Volatility in Users of the Manage My Pain App UR - https://www.jmir.org/2018/11/e12001 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L2 - https://www.jmir.org/2018/11/e12001/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Modeling Realized Volatility Dynamics with a Genetic Algorithm AU - Qu, Hui AU - Ji, Ping T2 - Journal of Forecasting AB - The heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) is inspired by the heterogeneous market hypothesis and characterizes realized volatility dynamics through a linear function of lagged daily, weekly and monthly realized volatilities with a (1, 5, 22) lag structure. Considering that different markets can have different heterogeneous structures and a market's heterogeneous structure can vary over time, we build an adaptive heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (AHAR-RV), whose lag structure is optimized with a genetic algorithm. Using nine common loss functions and the superior predictive ability test, we find that our AHAR-RV model and its extensions provide significantly better out-of-sample volatility forecasts for the CSI 300 index than the corresponding HAR models. Furthermore, the AHAR-RV model significantly outperforms all the other models under most loss functions. Besides, we confirm that Chinese stock markets' heterogeneous structure varies over time and the (1, 5, 22) lag structure is not the optimal choice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DA - 2016/// PY - 2016 DO - 10.1002/for.2386 DP - Wiley Online Library VL - 35 IS - 5 SP - 434 EP - 444 LA - en SN - 1099-131X UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/for.2386 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L2 - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/for.2386 KW - genetic algorithm KW - heterogeneous autoregressive model KW - realized volatility KW - superior predictive ability test ER - TY - JOUR TI - Adaptive Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models of Realized Volatility Based on a Genetic Algorithm AU - Qu, Hui AU - Ji, Ping T2 - Abstract and Applied Analysis AB - The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models of high-frequency realized volatility are inspired by the Heterogeneous Market Hypothesis and incorporate daily, weekly and monthly realized volatilities in the volatility dynamics with a (1,5,22) time horizon structure. We build on the HAR models and propose a new framework, adaptive heterogeneous autoregressive (AHAR) models, whose time horizon structures are optimized by a genetic algorithm. Our models can be applied to markets with different heterogeneous structures, and their time horizon structures can be adjusted adaptively as the market's heterogeneous structure varies. Moving window tests with five-minute returns of the CSI 300 index indicate that the (1,5,22) structure originally proposed for American stock markets is not the best choice for Chinese stock markets, and Chinese stock markets’ heterogeneous structure does vary over time. Using four common loss functions, we find that the AHAR models outperform the corresponding HAR models in most of the forecast windows and thus are reasonable choices for volatility forecasting practices. DA - 2014/// PY - 2014 DO - 10.1155/2014/943041 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 2014 SP - 1 EP - 8 J2 - Abstract and Applied Analysis LA - en SN - 1085-3375, 1687-0409 UR - http://www.hindawi.com/journals/aaa/2014/943041/ Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/aaa/2014/943041.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Forecasting financial time series volatility using Particle Swarm Optimization trained Quantile Regression Neural Network AU - Pradeepkumar, Dadabada AU - Ravi, Vadlamani T2 - Applied Soft Computing DA - 2017/09// PY - 2017 DO - 10.1016/j.asoc.2017.04.014 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 58 SP - 35 EP - 52 J2 - Applied Soft Computing LA - en SN - 15684946 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1568494617301862 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Exploring the predictability of range‐based volatility estimators using recurrent neural networks AU - Petneházi, Gábor AU - Gáll, József T2 - Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management DA - 2019/07// PY - 2019 DO - 10.1002/isaf.1455 DP - DOI.org (Crossref) VL - 26 IS - 3 SP - 109 EP - 116 J2 - Intell Sys Acc Fin Mgmt LA - en SN - 1055-615X, 1099-1174 UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/isaf.1455 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ L4 - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/isaf.1455 ER - TY - JOUR TI - pth Moment stability of stochastic neural networks with Markov volatilities AU - Peng, Jun AU - Liu, Zaiming T2 - Neural Computing and Applications AB - This paper is concerned with the pth moment stability of stochastic Grossberg-Hopfield neural networks with time-varying delays and Markovian volatilities. In such neural networks, the feature of stochastic systems, time-varying delay systems, and Markovian switching are taken into account. New conditions ensuring pth moment exponential stability of the considered system are presented by use of Lyapunov method and stochastic analysis theory. Finally, an example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the results. DA - 2011/06/01/ PY - 2011 DO - 10.1007/s00521-011-0542-5 DP - Springer Link VL - 20 IS - 4 SP - 543 EP - 547 J2 - Neural Comput & Applic LA - en SN - 1433-3058 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-011-0542-5 Y2 - 2021/12/06/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Volatility estimation using support vector machine: Applications to major foreign exchange rates AU - Chung, Steve S. AU - Zhang, Serin T2 - Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis AB - In finance, volatility is fundamentally important because it is associated with the risk. A growing body of literature shows that risks associated with volatility are priced in stock, option, bond, and foreign exchange markets. Therefore, an accurate measurement and estimation of the volatility is critical in financial markets. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) has been one of the most popular volatility models and the model is usually estimated from the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. In this paper, we attempt to improve the MLE-based GARCH forecast using the support vector machine (SVM). We also compare with two asymmetric volatility models: exponential GARCH (E-GARCH) and Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH (GJR-GARCH). We carry out the analysis through simulations and real datasets. The results show that the GARCH- and SVM-based volatility model provides better predictive potential than the existing volatility models. DA - 2017/10/14/ PY - 2017 DP - siba-ese.unisalento.it VL - 10 IS - 2 SP - 499 EP - 511 LA - en SN - 2070-5948 ST - Volatility estimation using support vector machine UR - http://siba-ese.unisalento.it/index.php/ejasa/article/view/17080 Y2 - 2021/12/07/14:15:12 L2 - http://siba-ese.unisalento.it/index.php/ejasa/article/view/17080 ER - TY - CONF TI - An Empirical Study of Volatility Predictions: Stock Market Analysis Using Neural Networks AU - Fong, Bernard AU - Fong, A. C. M. AU - Hong, G. Y. AU - Wong, Louisa A2 - Deng, Xiaotie A2 - Ye, Yinyu T3 - Lecture Notes in Computer Science AB - Volatility is one of the major factor that causes uncertainty in short term stock market movement. Empirical studies based on stock market data analysis were conducted to forecast the volatility for the implementation and evaluation of statistical models with neural network analysis. The model for prediction of Stock Exchange short term analysis uses neural networks for digital signal processing of filter bank computation. Our study shows that in the set of four stocks monitored, the model based on moving average analysis provides reasonably accurate volatility forecasts for a range of fifteen to twenty trading days. C1 - Berlin, Heidelberg C3 - Internet and Network Economics DA - 2005/// PY - 2005 DO - 10.1007/11600930_47 DP - Springer Link SP - 473 EP - 480 LA - en PB - Springer SN - 978-3-540-32293-1 ST - An Empirical Study of Volatility Predictions KW - Error Forecast KW - General Regression Neural Network KW - Neural Network KW - Probabilistic Neural Network KW - Stock Market ER - TY - JOUR TI - Implied volatility parameterization based on a machine learning polynomial approach AU - Pouralizadeh, Mostafa AU - Badamchizadeh, Abdolrahim AU - Morales, Manuel T2 - Intelligent Data Analysis AB - Implied volatility modeling is the future anticipation of price fluctuation and so has a crucial role in option pricing. Machine learning approach can be applied as a great tool to modeling implied volatility and predicting the corresponding future data working towards improving the validity of final outcomes. Usualy, the majority of traders and investors are willing to be encountered with a simple model which is easy to understand, so we provide a light method to reach the goal. In this paper, we propose a machine learning polynomial approach due to the smile shaped behavior of implied volatility and investigate it with a regularization penalty term to fit the Out-The-Money volatility data and we compare the result with the prominent counterpart SVI. Finally, the promising numerical results illustrate that the new proposed algorithm yields an implied volatility smile which is free from static arbitrage for Out-The-Money European call options most of the time and it outperforms SVI in prediction. DA - 2018/09/26/ PY - 2018 DO - 10.3233/IDA-173600 DP - ResearchGate VL - 22 SP - 1127 EP - 1141 J2 - Intelligent Data Analysis L4 - https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mostafa-Pouralizadeh/publication/327956660_Implied_volatility_parameterization_based_on_a_machine_learning_polynomial_approach/links/5f3ebb5192851cd3020abc0d/Implied-volatility-parameterization-based-on-a-machine-learning-polynomial-approach.pdf L4 - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327956660_Implied_volatility_parameterization_based_on_a_machine_learning_polynomial_approach ER - TY - JOUR TI - Performance evaluation of deep neural networks for forecasting time-series with multiple structural breaks and high volatility AU - Kaushik, Rohit AU - Jain, Shikhar AU - Jain, Siddhant AU - Dash, Tirtharaj T2 - CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology AB - The problem of automatic and accurate forecasting of time-series data has always been an interesting challenge for the machine learning and forecasting community. A majority of the real-world time-series problems have non-stationary characteristics that make the understanding of trend and seasonality difficult. Our interest in this paper is to study the applicability of the popular deep neural networks (DNN) as function approximators for non-stationary TSF. We evaluate the following DNN models: Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and RNN with Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM-RNN) and RNN with Gated-Recurrent Unit (GRU-RNN). These DNN methods have been evaluated over 10 popular Indian financial stocks data. Further, the performance evaluation of these DNNs has been carried out in multiple independent runs for two settings of forecasting: (1) single-step forecasting, and (2) multi-step forecasting. These DNN methods show convincing performance for single-step forecasting (one-day ahead forecast). For the multi-step forecasting (multiple days ahead forecast), we have evaluated the methods for different forecast periods. The performance of these methods demonstrates that long forecast periods have an adverse effect on performance. DA - 2021/09// PY - 2021 DO - 10.1049/cit2.12002 DP - arXiv.org VL - 6 IS - 3 SP - 265 EP - 280 J2 - CAAI trans. intell. technol. SN - 2468-2322, 2468-2322 UR - http://arxiv.org/abs/1911.06704 Y2 - 2021/12/07/14:20:39 L2 - https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.06704 L4 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1911.06704.pdf N1 -
Comment: Preprint (18 pages)
KW - Computer Science - Machine Learning KW - Computer Science - Neural and Evolutionary Computing KW - Statistics - Machine Learning ER - TY - BOOK TI - Machine Learning with R: Expert techniques for predictive modeling, 3rd Edition AU - Lantz, Brett AB - Solve real-world data problems with R and machine learningKey FeaturesThird edition of the bestselling, widely acclaimed R machine learning book, updated and improved for R 3.6 and beyondHarness the power of R to build flexible, effective, and transparent machine learning modelsLearn quickly with a clear, hands-on guide by experienced machine learning teacher and practitioner, Brett LantzBook DescriptionMachine learning, at its core, is concerned with transforming data into actionable knowledge. R offers a powerful set of machine learning methods to quickly and easily gain insight from your data.Machine Learning with R, Third Edition provides a hands-on, readable guide to applying machine learning to real-world problems. Whether you are an experienced R user or new to the language, Brett Lantz teaches you everything you need to uncover key insights, make new predictions, and visualize your findings.This new 3rd edition updates the classic R data science book to R 3.6 with newer and better libraries, advice on ethical and bias issues in machine learning, and an introduction to deep learning. Find powerful new insights in your data; discover machine learning with R.What you will learnDiscover the origins of machine learning and how exactly a computer learns by examplePrepare your data for machine learning work with the R programming languageClassify important outcomes using nearest neighbor and Bayesian methodsPredict future events using decision trees, rules, and support vector machinesForecast numeric data and estimate financial values using regression methodsModel complex processes with artificial neural networks — the basis of deep learningAvoid bias in machine learning modelsEvaluate your models and improve their performanceConnect R to SQL databases and emerging big data technologies such as Spark, H2O, and TensorFlowWho this book is forData scientists, students, and other practitioners who want a clear, accessible guide to machine learning with R. DA - 2019/04/15/ PY - 2019 DP - Google Books SP - 459 LA - en PB - Packt Publishing Ltd SN - 978-1-78829-155-2 ST - Machine Learning with R L2 - https://books.google.com.co/books?id=iNuSDwAAQBAJ KW - Computers / Artificial Intelligence / General KW - Computers / Data Science / Data Analytics KW - Computers / Programming / Algorithms ER - TY - CONF TI - Currency options volatility forecasting with shift-invariant wavelet transform and neural networks AU - Liu, Fan-Yong AU - Liu, Fan-Xin T3 - ICONIP'06 AB - This paper describes four currency options volatility forecasting models. These models are based on shift-invariant wavelet transform and neural networks techniques. The à trous algorithm is used to realize the shift-invariant wavelet transform. Wavelets provide a decomposition of the volatility in a nonlinear feature space. Neural networks are used to infer future volatility from the feature space. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined by different techniques to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed models have been tested with the USD/Yen options volatility market data. Experimental results show that wavelet prediction scheme has the best forecasting performance on testing dataset among four models, with regards to the least error values. Therefore, wavelet prediction scheme outperforms the other three models and avoids effectively over-fitting problems. C1 - Berlin, Heidelberg C3 - Proceedings of the 13th international conference on Neural information processing - Volume Part III DA - 2006/10/03/ PY - 2006 DP - ACM Digital Library SP - 461 EP - 468 PB - Springer-Verlag SN - 978-3-540-46484-6 Y2 - 2021/12/07/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Volatility forecasting for interbank offered rate using grey extreme learning machine: The case of China AU - Liu, Xiaoyong AU - Fu, Hui T2 - Chaos, Solitons & Fractals T3 - Nonlinear Dynamics and Complexity AB - Interbank Offered rate is the only direct market rate in China’s currency market. Volatility forecasting of China Interbank Offered Rate (IBOR) has a very important theoretical and practical significance for financial asset pricing and financial risk measure or management. However, IBOR is a dynamics and non-steady time series whose developmental changes have stronger random fluctuation, so it is difficult to forecast the volatility of IBOR. This paper offers a hybrid algorithm using grey model and extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast volatility of IBOR. The proposed algorithm is composed of three phases. In the first, grey model is used to deal with the original IBOR time series by accumulated generating operation (AGO) and weaken the stochastic volatility in original series. And then, a forecasting model is founded by using ELM to analyze the new IBOR series. Lastly, the predictive value of the original IBOR series can be obtained by inverse accumulated generating operation (IAGO). The new model is applied to forecasting Interbank Offered Rate of China. Compared with the forecasting results of BP and classical ELM, the new model is more efficient to forecasting short- and middle-term volatility of IBOR. DA - 2016/08/01/ PY - 2016 DO - 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.11.033 DP - ScienceDirect VL - 89 SP - 249 EP - 254 J2 - Chaos, Solitons & Fractals LA - en SN - 0960-0779 ST - Volatility forecasting for interbank offered rate using grey extreme learning machine UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077915003987 Y2 - 2021/12/07/14:27:55 L2 - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960077915003987 KW - Artificial neural network KW - Extreme learning machine KW - Grey model KW - Nonlinear dynamics system KW - Volatility forecasting ER - TY - JOUR TI - An alternative approach to estimating demand: Neural network regression with conditional volatility for high frequency air passenger arrivals AU - Medeiros, Marcelo C. AU - McAleer, Michael AU - Slottje, Daniel AU - Ramos, Vicente AU - Rey-Maquieira, Javier T2 - Journal of Econometrics T3 - Estimating demand systems and measuring consumer preferences AB - In this paper we provide an alternative approach to analyze the demand for international tourism in the Balearic Islands, Spain, by using a neural network model that incorporates time-varying conditional volatility. We consider daily air passenger arrivals to Palma de Mallorca, Ibiza and Mahon, which are located in the islands of Mallorca, Ibiza and Menorca, respectively, as a proxy for international tourism demand for the Balearic Islands. Spain is a world leader in terms of total international tourist arrivals and receipts, and Mallorca is one of the most popular destinations in Spain. For tourism management and marketing, it is essential to forecast high frequency international tourist demand accurately. As it is important to provide sensible international tourism demand forecast intervals, it is also necessary to model their variances accurately. Moreover, time-varying variances provide useful information regarding the risks associated with variations in international tourist arrivals. DA - 2008/12/01/ PY - 2008 DO - 10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.09.018 DP - ScienceDirect VL - 147 IS - 2 SP - 372 EP - 383 J2 - Journal of Econometrics LA - en SN - 0304-4076 ST - An alternative approach to estimating demand UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407608001516 Y2 - 2021/12/07/14:29:16 L2 - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304407608001516 KW - Neural networks KW - Nonlinear models KW - Passenger arrivals KW - Semi-parametric models KW - Smooth transition KW - Time series KW - Tourism demand ER - TY - JOUR TI - Applications of Support Vector Machine in modeling and forecasting stock market volatility AU - Ou, Phichhang AU - Wang, Hengshan T2 - International Information Institute (Tokyo). Information DA - 2012/// PY - 2012 VL - 15 IS - 8 SP - 3365 J2 - International Information Institute (Tokyo). Information SN - 1343-4500 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Volatility Modelling and Prediction by Hybrid Support Vector Regression with Chaotic Genetic Algorithms AU - Ou, Phichhang AU - Wang, Hengshan T2 - International Arab Journal of Information Technology AB - In this paper, a new econometric model of volatility is proposed using hybrid Support Vector machine for Regression (SVR) combined with Chaotic Genetic Algorithm (CGA) to fit conditional mean and then conditional variance of stock market returns. The CGA, integrated by chaotic optimization algorithm with Genetic Algorithm (GA), is used to overcome premature local optimum in determining three hyperparameters of SVR model. The proposed hybrid SVRCGA model is achieved, which includes the selection of input variables by ARMA approach for fitting both mean and variance functions of returns, and also the searching process of obtaining the optimal SVR hyperparameters based on the CGA while training the SVR. Real data of complex stock markets (NASDAQ) are applied to validate and check the predicting accuracy of the hybrid SVRCGA model. The experimental results showed that the proposed model outperforms the other competing models including SVR with GA, standard SVR, Kernel smoothing and several parametric GARCH type models. DA - 2014/05/01/ PY - 2014 DP - ResearchGate VL - 11 SP - 287 EP - 292 J2 - International Arab Journal of Information Technology L4 - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287401243_Volatility_Modelling_and_Prediction_by_Hybrid_Support_Vector_Regression_with_Chaotic_Genetic_Algorithms ER - TY - JOUR TI - Applied machine learning and management of volatility, uncertainty, complexity & ambiguity (VUCA). AU - Patnaik, Srikanta T2 - Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems DA - 2020/// PY - 2020 VL - 39 IS - 2 SP - 1 EP - 8 J2 - Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems ER - TY - JOUR TI - Delta-neutral volatility trading using neural networks AU - Calôba, L.O.M. AU - Calôba, L.P. AU - Contador, C.R. T2 - International Journal of Engineering Intelligent Systems for Electrical Engineering and Communications AB - In this paper we propose a methodology to forecast the daily changes of the market volatility (ISD) using neural networks. We define the input variables based on specific literature but using lag and horizon of the training set calculated so that we guarantee the significancy of its correlation with the output variable through time. We use this methodology on data from Telebrás PN Stock options from August 1994 through November 1996. Then, based on out-of-sample projections of the model we simulate a trading volatility strategy, creating Delta-hedged portfolios that result in abnormal returns in the market. DA - 2001/12/01/ PY - 2001 DP - ResearchGate VL - 9 SP - 243 EP - 249 J2 - International Journal of Engineering Intelligent Systems for Electrical Engineering and Communications L4 - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/295758036_Delta-neutral_volatility_trading_using_neural_networks ER - TY - CHAP TI - Machine Learning for Health Informatics AU - Holzinger, Andreas T2 - Machine Learning for Health Informatics: State-of-the-Art and Future Challenges AB - Machine Learning (ML) studies algorithms which can learn from data to gain knowledge from experience and to make decisions and predictions. Health Informatics (HI) studies the effective use of probabilistic information for decision making. The combination of both has greatest potential to rise quality, efficacy and efficiency of treatment and care. Health systems worldwide are confronted with "big data" in high dimensions, where the inclusion of a human is impossible and automatic ML (aML) show impressive results. However, sometimes we are confronted with complex data, "little data", or rare events, where aML-approaches suffer of insufficient training samples. Here interactive ML (iML) may be of help, particularly with a doctor-in-the-loop, e.g. in subspace clustering, k-Anonymization, protein folding and protein design. However, successful application of ML for HI needs an integrated approach, fostering a concerted effort of four areas: (1) data science, (2) algorithms (with focus on networks and topology (structure), and entropy (time), (3) data visualization, and last but not least (4) privacy, data protection, safety & security. CY - Cham DA - 2016/// PY - 2016 DP - Web of Science Nextgen VL - 9605 SP - 1 EP - 24 LA - English PB - Springer International Publishing Ag SN - 978-3-319-50478-0 978-3-319-50477-3 UR - http://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000408904100002 Y2 - 2021/12/13/18:12:39 KW - classification KW - consensus KW - entropy KW - future KW - Health informatics KW - knowledge discovery KW - Machine learning KW - of-the-art ER - TY - JOUR TI - Two improved k-means algorithms AU - Yu, Shyr-Shen AU - Chu, Shao-Wei AU - Wang, Chuin-Mu AU - Chan, Yung-Kuan AU - Chang, Ting-Cheng T2 - Applied Soft Computing AB - K-means algorithm is the most commonly used simple clustering method. For a large number of high dimensional numerical data, it provides an efficient method for classifying similar data into the same cluster. In this study, a tri-level k-means algorithm and a bi-layer k-means algorithm are proposed. The k-means algorithm is vulnerable to outliers and noisy data, and also susceptible to initial cluster centers. The tri-level k-means algorithm can overcome these drawbacks. While the data in a dataset S are often changed, after a period of time the trained cluster centers cannot precisely describe the data in each cluster. The cluster centers hence need to be updated. In this paper, an online machine learning based tri-level k-means algorithm is also provided to solve this problem. When the data in a cluster are significantly different, a cluster center cannot alone precisely describe each datum in the cluster. Noisy data, outliers, and data with quite different values in the same cluster may decrease the performance of pattern matching systems. The bi-layer k-means algorithm can deal with the above problems. Meanwhile, a genetic-based algorithm is provided to derive the fittest parameters used in the tri-level and bi-layer k-means algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate that both algorithms can provide much better accuracy of classification than the traditional k-means algorithm. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. DA - 2018/07// PY - 2018 DO - 10.1016/j.asoc.2017.08.032 DP - Web of Science Nextgen VL - 68 SP - 747 EP - 755 J2 - Appl. Soft. Comput. LA - English SN - 1568-4946 UR - http://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000433155300052 Y2 - 2021/12/13/18:16:50 KW - classified vector quantization KW - Genetic algorithm KW - k-Means algorithm KW - Noise data KW - Online machine learning KW - Outlier ER - TY - JOUR TI - An overview on semi-supervised support vector machine AU - Ding, Shifei AU - Zhu, Zhibin AU - Zhang, Xiekai T2 - Neural Computing & Applications AB - Support vector machine (SVM) is a machine learning method based on statistical learning theory. It has a lot of advantages, such as solid theoretical foundation, global optimization, the sparsity of the solution, nonlinear and generalization. The standard form of SVM only applies to supervised learning. Large amount of data generated in real life is unlabeled, and the standard form of SVM cannot make good use of these data to improve its learning ability. However, semi-supervised support vector machine (S3VM) is a good solution to this problem. This paper reviews the recent progress in semi-supervised support vector machine. First, the basic theory of S3VM is expounded and discussed in detail; then, the mainstream model of S3VM is presented, including transductive support vector machine, Laplacian support vector machine, S3VM training via the label mean, S3VM based on cluster kernel; finally, we give the conclusions and look ahead to the research on S3VM. DA - 2017/05// PY - 2017 DO - 10.1007/s00521-015-2113-7 DP - Web of Science Nextgen VL - 28 IS - 5 SP - 969 EP - 978 J2 - Neural Comput. Appl. LA - English SN - 0941-0643 UR - http://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000401342700010 Y2 - 2021/12/13/18:18:24 KW - algorithm KW - framework KW - image classification KW - kernel KW - manifold regularization KW - Semi-supervised KW - Semi-supervised support vector machine KW - Support vector machine ER - TY - JOUR TI - Deep Learning AU - Hao, Xing AU - Zhang, Guigang AU - Ma, Shang T2 - International Journal of Semantic Computing AB - Deep learning is a branch of machine learning that tries to model high-level abstractions of data using multiple layers of neurons consisting of complex structures or non-liner transformations. With the increase of the amount of data and the power of computation, neural networks with more complex structures have attracted widespread attention and been applied to various fields. This paper provides an overview of deep learning in neural networks including popular architecture models and training algorithms. DA - 2016/09// PY - 2016 DO - 10.1142/S1793351X16500045 DP - Web of Science Nextgen VL - 10 IS - 3 SP - 417 EP - 439 J2 - Int. J. Semant. Comput. LA - English SN - 1793-351X UR - http://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000389655900008 Y2 - 2021/12/13/18:19:12 KW - Deep learning KW - networks KW - neural networks KW - training ER - TY - CHAP TI - Recurrent neural networks are universal approximators AU - Schaefer, Anton Maximilian AU - Zimmermann, Hans Georg T2 - Artificial Neural Networks - Icann 2006, Pt 1 A2 - Kollias, S. A2 - Stafylopatis, A. A2 - Duch, W. A2 - Oja, E. AB - Neural networks represent a class of functions for the efficient identification and forecasting of dynamical systems. It has been shown that feedforward networks are able to approximate any (Borel-)measurable function on a compact domain [1,2,3]. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been developed for a better understanding and analysis of open dynamical systems. Compared to feedforward networks they have several advantages which have been discussed extensively in several papers and books, e.g. [4]. Still the question often arises if RNNs are able to map every open dynamical system, which would be desirable for a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper we give a proof for the universal approximation ability of RNNs in state space model form. The proof is based on the work of Hornik, Stinchcombe, and White about feedforward neural networks [1]. CY - Berlin DA - 2006/// PY - 2006 DP - Web of Science Nextgen VL - 4131 SP - 632 EP - 640 LA - English PB - Springer-Verlag Berlin SN - 978-3-540-38625-4 UR - http://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000241472100066 Y2 - 2021/12/13/18:23:16 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Big data in medicine and healthcare AU - Rueping, Stefan T2 - Bundesgesundheitsblatt-Gesundheitsforschung-Gesundheitsschutz AB - Healthcare is one of the business fields with the highest Big Data potential. According to the prevailing definition, Big Data refers to the fact that data today is often too large and heterogeneous and changes too quickly to be stored, processed, and transformed into value by previous technologies. The technological trends drive Big Data: business processes are more and more executed electronically, consumers produce more and more data themselves - e.g. in social networks - and finally ever increasing digitalization. Currently, several new trends towards new data sources and innovative data analysis appear in medicine and healthcare. From the research perspective, omics-research is one clear Big Data topic. In practice, the electronic health records, free open data and the "quantified self" offer new perspectives for data analytics. Regarding analytics, significant advances have been made in the information extraction from text data, which unlocks a lot of data from clinical documentation for analytics purposes. At the same time, medicine and healthcare is lagging behind in the adoption of Big Data approaches. This can be traced to particular problems regarding data complexity and organizational, legal, and ethical challenges. The growing uptake of Big Data in general and first best-practice examples in medicine and healthcare in particular, indicate that innovative solutions will be coming. This paper gives an overview of the potentials of Big Data in medicine and healthcare. DA - 2015/08// PY - 2015 DO - 10.1007/s00103-015-2181-y DP - Web of Science Nextgen VL - 58 IS - 8 SP - 794 EP - 798 J2 - Bundesgesundheitsblatt-Gesund. LA - German SN - 1436-9990 UR - http://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000358598500003 Y2 - 2021/12/13/18:33:16 KW - Analytics KW - Big Data KW - Data Mining KW - Data Science ER - TY - JOUR TI - Quantum Genetic Algorithms for Computer Scientists AU - Lahoz-Beltra, Rafael T2 - Computers AB - Genetic algorithms (GAs) are a class of evolutionary algorithms inspired by Darwinian natural selection. They are popular heuristic optimisation methods based on simulated genetic mechanisms, i.e., mutation, crossover, etc. and population dynamical processes such as reproduction, selection, etc. Over the last decade, the possibility to emulate a quantum computer (a computer using quantum-mechanical phenomena to perform operations on data) has led to a new class of GAs known as "Quantum Genetic Algorithms" (QGAs). In this review, we present a discussion, future potential, pros and cons of this new class of GAs. The review will be oriented towards computer scientists interested in QGAs "avoiding" the possible difficulties of quantum-mechanical phenomena. DA - 2016/12// PY - 2016 DO - 10.3390/computers5040024 DP - Web of Science Nextgen VL - 5 IS - 4 SP - 24 J2 - Computers LA - English SN - 2073-431X UR - http://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000390875100005 Y2 - 2021/12/13/18:42:24 L1 - https://www.mdpi.com/2073-431X/5/4/24/pdf KW - evolutionary algorithm KW - gate KW - quantum computing KW - quantum evolutionary algorithms KW - quantum genetic algorithms KW - reduced quantum genetic algorithm ER - TY - JOUR TI - Artificial intelligence AU - Scotti, Veronica T2 - Ieee Instrumentation & Measurement Magazine AB - Recently, we have observed an impressive evolution in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) which aims to reach any area of human activities to reduce the efforts of people related to boring daily jobs. AI is defined as the capacity of a computer to perform tasks commonly associated with human beings. DA - 2020/05// PY - 2020 DO - 10.1109/MIM.2020.9082795 DP - Web of Science Nextgen VL - 23 IS - 3 SP - 27 EP - 31 J2 - IEEE Instrum. Meas. Mag. LA - English SN - 1094-6969 UR - http://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000532226700005 Y2 - 2021/12/13/18:48:13 KW - Artificial intelligence KW - Law KW - Patents KW - Robots KW - Task analysis ER -