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dc.creatorMoreno, Laura E. 
dc.creatorGallego, Jorge A. 
dc.creatorVargas, Juan F. 
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-08T19:16:32Z
dc.date.available2020-05-08T19:16:32Z
dc.date.created2020-05-07
dc.identifier.citationMoreno, Laura E.; Gallego, Jorge A.; Vargas, Juan F. (2020) More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia. Universidad del Rosario, Department of Economics, Documentos de trabajo economía. 48 pp.
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/21920
dc.descriptionEste documento estima el impacto de las carreteras rurales en los conflictos armados y los cultivos ilícitos en Colombia durante un período de catorce años de rápido crecimiento de las inversiones en carreteras. Estimamos el impacto causal de estas intervenciones utilizando microdatos de los ingresos por regalías para el sector del transporte a nivel municipal e implementamos una estrategia de Diferencia en Diferencias con adopción escalonada. Los resultados muestran que los nuevos caminos rurales, en particular los pequeños proyectos conocidos como placa-huella, tienen un efecto causal positivo en los conflictos armados y en los cultivos de coca. Estos efectos no deseados de la provisión de carreteras se deben principalmente a la intensificación de la violencia en los municipios más ricos. En estos lugares, encontramos que la nueva conectividad conduce a un aumento en la producción de cultivos legales. Por lo tanto, los municipios más ricos son más atractivos para los grupos armados y más vulnerables a los ataques que buscan expropiar estas nuevas rentas. Además, el contexto institucional parece ser determinante en el signo del efecto: en municipios con instituciones calificadas y estables, la provisión de carreteras mitiga el desarrollo de actividades ilegales. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de proporcionar bienes públicos en paralelo con el fortalecimiento de la capacidad del estado local a través de instituciones confiables.
dc.description.abstractThis paper estimates the impact of rural roads on armed conflict and illicit crops in Colombia over a fourteen year period of rapid growth of road investments. We estimate the causal impact of these interventions using micro-data of the royalties revenues to the transport sector at the municipal level, and implement a strategy of Difference-in-Differences with staggered adoption. The results show that new rural roads, in particular small projects known as placa-huella, have a positive causal effect on armed conflict and on coca crops. These unintended effects of road provision are mainly driven by the intensification of violence in wealthier municipalities. In these places, we find that the new connectivity leads to an increase in the production of legal crops. Hence, wealthier municipalities are more attractive to armed groups and more vulnerable to attacks that seek to expropriate these new rents. In addition, the institutional background seems to be determinant in the sign of the effect: in municipalities with qualified and stable institutions, road provision mitigates the development of illegal activity. These results highlight the importance of providing public goods in parallel with strengthening the local state capacity through reliable institutions.
dc.format.extent48
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isospa
dc.relation.urihttps://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000092/018154.html
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/co/
dc.sourcereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR
dc.sourceinstname:Universidad del Rosario
dc.subjectCarreteras
dc.subjectBienes públicos
dc.subjectConflicto armado
dc.subjectEconomías ilegales
dc.subjectRegalías
dc.subject.ddcEconomía de la tierra 
dc.subject.ddcProblemas sociales & bienestar social en general 
dc.titleMore roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia
dc.typeworkingPaper
dc.subject.keywordRoads
dc.subject.keywordPublic Goods
dc.subject.keywordArmed Conflict
dc.subject.keywordIllegal Economies
dc.subject.keywordRoyalties
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.type.spaDocumento de trabajo
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)
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dc.contributor.gruplacGrupo de Investigaciones. Facultad de Economía. Universidad del Rosario
dc.relation.citationTitleSerie Documentos de trabajo. Economía


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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia