Ítem
Acceso Abierto
Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates in Latin America: A copula-GARCH approach
dc.contributor.advisor | Castro, Carlos | |
dc.creator | Rico Ramírez, Santiago | |
dc.creator.degree | Magíster en Economía | spa |
dc.creator.degreetype | Full time | spa |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-05-28T17:21:24Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-05-28T17:21:24Z | |
dc.date.created | 2020-05-18 | |
dc.description | Este trabajo estudia la relación entre los precios del petróleo y las tasas de cambio en Latinoamérica utilizando una metodología copula-GARCH. Esta aproximación permite modelar algunas de las particulariedades conocidas tanto para las tasas de cambio como para los precios del petróleo: exceso de kurtosis, sesgo y la presencia de efectos de apalancamiento. Los resultados muestran que existe comovimiento entre los precios del petróleo y las tasas de cambio Latinoamericanas. Sin embargo, la magnitud de esta relación ha evolucionado a través del tiempo. Mientras que durante los primeros años de la década del 2000 la relación era casi inexistente, en años más recientes, el vínculo se ha fortalecido de forma continua. | spa |
dc.description.abstract | This work studies the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates for six Latin American countries using a copula-GARCH methodology. This approach takes into account well-known particularities of both oil prices and exchange rates: excess-kurtosis, skewness and the presence of leverage effects. The results show that a co-movement relationship exists between oil prices and Latin American exchange rates, however, the strength of this relationship has evolved over time. While in the first years of the 2000s the relationship was almost non-existent, in more recent years the connection has become increasingly stronger. | spa |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.48713/10336_24425 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/24425 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | spa |
dc.publisher | Universidad del Rosario | spa |
dc.publisher.department | Facultad de Economía | spa |
dc.publisher.program | Maestría en Economía | spa |
dc.rights | Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia | spa |
dc.rights.accesRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
dc.rights.acceso | Abierto (Texto Completo) | spa |
dc.rights.licencia | EL AUTOR, manifiesta que la obra objeto de la presente autorización es original y la realizó sin violar o usurpar derechos de autor de terceros, por lo tanto la obra es de exclusiva autoría y tiene la titularidad sobre la misma. PARGRAFO: En caso de presentarse cualquier reclamación o acción por parte de un tercero en cuanto a los derechos de autor sobre la obra en cuestión, EL AUTOR, asumirá toda la responsabilidad, y saldrá en defensa de los derechos aquí autorizados; para todos los efectos la universidad actúa como un tercero de buena fe. EL AUTOR, autoriza a LA UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, para que en los términos establecidos en la Ley 23 de 1982, Ley 44 de 1993, Decisión andina 351 de 1993, Decreto 460 de 1995 y demás normas generales sobre la materia, utilice y use la obra objeto de la presente autorización. -------------------------------------- POLITICA DE TRATAMIENTO DE DATOS PERSONALES. Declaro que autorizo previa y de forma informada el tratamiento de mis datos personales por parte de LA UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO para fines académicos y en aplicación de convenios con terceros o servicios conexos con actividades propias de la academia, con estricto cumplimiento de los principios de ley. Para el correcto ejercicio de mi derecho de habeas data cuento con la cuenta de correo habeasdata@urosario.edu.co, donde previa identificación podré solicitar la consulta, corrección y supresión de mis datos. | spa |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/co/ | |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Aloui, R., Aïssa, M., & Nguyen, D. (2013). Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates: A copula-garch approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32 (1), 719-738. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Aloui, R., & Ben-Aïssa, M. S. (2016). Relationship between oil, stock prices and exchange rates: A vine copula based garch method. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 37 (1), 458-471. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Amano, R., & van Norden, S. (1998). Oil prices and the rise and fall of the us real exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 17 (1), 299-316. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 47–78. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Basher, S. A., Haugh, A. A., & Sadorsky, P. (2012). Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets. Energy Economics, 34 (1), 227-240. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Bénassy-Quéré, A., Mignon, V., & Penot, A. (2007). China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar. Energy Policy, 35 (1), 5795-5805. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Bodart, V., Candelon, B., & Carpantier, J.-F. (2012). Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31 (6), 1482–1502. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Bodart, V., Candelon, B., & Carpantier, J.-F. (2015). Real exchanges rates, commodity prices and structural factors in developing countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 51 , 264–284. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Buetzer, S., Habib, M. M., & Stracca, L. (2012). Global exchange rate configurations: do oil shocks matter? | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Chen, H., Wang, Y., & Zhu, Y. (2016). Oil prices shocks and u.s. dollar exchange rates. Energy, 112 (1), 1036-1048. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Chen, L., Zerilli, P., & Baum, C. F. (2019). Leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns: A bayesian approach with var and cvar applications. Energy Economics, 79 , 111–129. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Chen, S.-S., & Chen, H.-C. (2007). Oil prices and real exchange rates. Energy Economics, 29 (1), 390-404. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Chen, Y.-c., & Rogoff, K. (2003). Commodity currencies. Journal of international Economics, 60 (1), 133–160. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Cherubini, U., Luciano, E., & Vecchiato, W. (2004). Copula methods in finance. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Chiang, T. C., Jeon, B. N., & Li, H. (2007). Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from asian markets. Journal of International Money and finance, 26 (7), 1206–1228. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | de Truchis, G., & Keddad, B. (2016). On the risk comovements between the crude oil market and us dollar exchange rates. Economic Modelling, 52 , 206–215. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Dibooglu, S. (1996). Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18 (1), 69-87. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Ding, Z., Granger, C. W., & Engle, R. F. (1993). A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model. Journal of Emporical Finance, 1 (1), 83-106. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Ding, Z., Granger, C. W., & Engle, R. F. (1993). A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model. Journal of Emporical Finance, 1 (1), 83-106. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Engle, R. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20 (3), 339–350. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Fan, Y., & Patton, A. J. (2014). Copulas in econometrics. Annu. Rev. Econ., 6 (1), 179–200. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Fernandez, V. (2015). Commodity price excess co-movement from a historical perspective: 1900–2010. Energy Economics, 49 , 698–710. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Fraga, A., Goldfajn, I., & Minella, A. (2003). Inflation targeting in emerging market economies. NBER macroeconomics annual, 18 , 365–400. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Frankel, J. A. (2010). A comparison of monetary anchor options, including product price targeting, for commodity-exporters in latin america (Tech. Rep.). National Bureau of Economic Research. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R., & Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess. The Journal of Finance, 48 (5), 1779-1801. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Golub, S. S. (1983). Oil prices and exchange rates. The Economic Journal, 93 (1), 576-593. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Gomez-Gonzalez, J. E., Hirs-Garzon, J., & Uribe, J. M. (2020). Giving and receiving: Exploring the predictive causality between oil prices and exchange rates. International Finance, 23 (1), 175–194. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | González-Hermosillo, M. B., Martin, M. V., Fry, M. R., & Dungey, M. M. (2003).Unanticipated shocks and systemic influences: the impact of contagion in global equity markets in 1998 (No. 3-84). International Monetary Fund. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Habib, M. M., & Kalamova, M. M. (2007). Are there oil currencies? the real exchange rate of oil exporting countries. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | He, Y., & Hamori, S. (2019). Conditional dependence between oil prices and exchange rates in brics countries: An application of the copula-garch model. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12 (2), 99. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Huang, W., & Prokhorov, A. (2014). A goodness-of-fit test for copulas. Econometric Reviews, 33 (7), 751–771. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Kim, J.-M., & Jung, H. (2018). Dependence structure between oil prices, exchange rates, and interest rates. The Energy Journal, 39 (2), 259-280. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Kristoufek, L. (2014). Leverage effect in energy futures. Energy Economics, 45 , 1–9. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Krugman, P. (1983). Exchange rates and international macroeconomics. In J. A. Frankel (Ed.), (p. 259-284). University of Chicago Press. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Lescaroux, F. (2009). On the excess co-movement of commodity prices—a note about the role of fundamental factors in short-run dynamics. Energy Policy, 37 (10), 3906–3913. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Lizardo, R. A., & Mollick, A. V. (2010). Oil price fluctuations and u.s. dollar exchange rates. Energy Economics, 32 (1), 399-408. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Loaiza-Maya, R. A., Gómez-González, J. E., & Melo-Velandia, L. F. (2015a). Exchange rate contagion in latin america. Research in International Business and Finance, 34 , 355–367. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Loaiza-Maya, R. A., Gómez-González, J. E., & Melo-Velandia, L. F. (2015b). Latin american exchange rate dependencies: A regular vine copula approach. Contemporary Economic Policy, 33 (3), 535–549. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | McKenzie, M., & Mitchell, H. (2002). Generalized asymmetric power arch modelling of exchange rate volatility. Applied Financial Economics, 12 (8), 555–564. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Prasad, A. (2008). Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the fiji islands. Energy Economics, 30 (5), 2686–2696. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Nusair, S. A., & Olson, D. (2019). The effects of oil price shocks on asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis. Energy Economics, 78 (1), 44-63. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Reboredo, J. C. (2012). Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements. Journal of Policy Modelling, 34 (1), 419-440. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Sebai, S., Naoui, K., et al. (2015). A study of the interactive relationship between oil price and exchange rate: A copula approach and a dcc-mgarch model. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12 (2), 173–189. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Tiwari, A. K., Mutascu, M. I., & Albulescu, C. T. (2013). The influence of the international prices on the real effective exchange rate in romania in a wavelet transform framework. Energy Economics, 40 (1), 714-733. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Tse, Y. K., & Tsui, A. K. C. (2002). A multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20 (3), 351–362. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Turhan, M. I., Sensoy, A., & Hacihasanoglu, E. (2014). A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 32 , 397–414. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Wu, C.-C., Chung, H., & Chang, Y.-H. (2012). The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based garch models. Energy Economics, 34 (1), 270-282. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Yang, L., Cai, X. J., & Hamori, S. (2017). Does the crude oil price influence the exchange rates of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries differently? a wavelet coherence analysis. International Review of Economics and Finance, 49 (1), 536- 547. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18 (1), 931-955. | spa |
dc.source.bibliographicCitation | Zhu, H.-M., Li, R., & Li, S. (2014). Modelling dynamic dependence between crude oil prices and asia-pacific stock market returns. International Review of Economics and Finance, 29 (1), 208-223. | spa |
dc.source.instname | instname:Universidad del Rosario | spa |
dc.source.reponame | reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR | spa |
dc.subject | Precios del petróleo | spa |
dc.subject | Tasas de cambio | spa |
dc.subject | Medidas de dependencia | spa |
dc.subject | Copulas | spa |
dc.subject.ddc | Economía internacional | spa |
dc.subject.ddc | Producción | spa |
dc.subject.keyword | Oil Prices | spa |
dc.subject.keyword | Exchange rates | spa |
dc.subject.keyword | Dependence measures | spa |
dc.subject.keyword | Copulas | spa |
dc.title | Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates in Latin America: A copula-GARCH approach | spa |
dc.title.TranslatedTitle | Estructura de dependencia condicional entre los precios del petróleo y los tipos de cambio en América Latina: un enfoque de cópula-GARCH | eng |
dc.type | masterThesis | eng |
dc.type.document | Análisis de caso | spa |
dc.type.hasVersion | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion | |
dc.type.spa | Tesis de maestría | spa |
Archivos
Bloque original
1 - 2 de 2
Cargando...
- Nombre:
- RicoRamirez-Santiago-1.pdf
- Tamaño:
- 454.51 KB
- Formato:
- Adobe Portable Document Format
- Descripción:
- Documento principal de la tesis
Cargando...
- Nombre:
- RicoRamirez-Santiago-2.pdf
- Tamaño:
- 182.69 KB
- Formato:
- Adobe Portable Document Format
- Descripción:
- Apéndice de la tesis