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Sinergia entre sistemas urbanos y su papel en la generación de bienestar en las ciudades

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dc.contributor.advisorBecerra Fernández, Mauricio
dc.contributor.advisorRedondo Ortegón, Johan Manuel
dc.creatorBuitrago Sarmiento, Yuliana Andrea
dc.creator.degreeMagíster en Ciudades Inteligentes y Sostenibles
dc.creator.degreeLevelMaestría
dc.date.accessioned2025-11-05T13:24:33Z
dc.date.available2025-11-05T13:24:33Z
dc.date.created2025-11-04
dc.description“Sinergias entre sistemas urbanos y su papel en la generación de bienestar en ciudades” (caso Bogotá D.C.) modela la ciudad como un sistema complejo donde movilidad, energía, agua-residuos, espacio público, salud, educación, seguridad y gobernanza coevolucionan mediante retroalimentaciones y retardos. Integra un diagrama causal validado y un modelo de niveles y flujos en Vensim para priorizar bucles, ubicar puntos de palanca e investigar escenarios (BAU, infraestructura, movilidad activa, salud y un paquete integrado). Los resultados muestran que el BAU tiende a una trayectoria de deterioro por desajustes demanda-capacidad; las acciones aisladas generan mejoras marginales; y el paquete integrado (salud-ambiente-movilidad activa-capacidad urbana) rinde mejor al capturar co-beneficios (aire, confort térmico, uso de espacio público, actividad física). No obstante, no hay cambio de régimen sin ajustes de gobernanza y gestión de la demanda que contengan efectos rebote. Un submodelo demográfico (1928–2030) describe crecimiento logístico cercano a la capacidad de carga, reforzando que elevar el bienestar exige sinergias sistémicas más que crecimiento poblacional. Como aporte, enlaza teoría y práctica al proponer un marco replicable de indicadores y simulación para coordinar intervenciones integradas que reconfiguren bucles y acorten retardos.
dc.description.abstractCities operate as complex adaptive systems in which mobility, energy, water, waste, public space, health, education, safety, and governance coevolve through feedbacks, delays, and nonlinear interactions. This thesis examines how synergies across urban systems contribute to well-being in Bogotá D.C. and advances a decision-support approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative system dynamics. Well-being is treated as an emergent, multidimensional outcome—encompassing environmental quality, health, safety, equitable access, and cohesion—rather than an isolated target. The research constructs and validates a causal loop diagram to operationalize interdependencies and feedback structures, translates this architecture into a stock-and-flow model in Vensim with equations, parameters, and time delays, and subjects the model to structural and behavioral tests plus sensitivity analysis. An evaluation framework links process and outcome indicators to dominant loops and leverage points, strengthened by expert judgment and documentary triangulation. An interactive web interface enables exploration of scenarios by stakeholders. Results show that under business as usual the city’s well-being follows a quasi-exponential decay toward a low-performance equilibrium driven by demand–capacity imbalances and lags in service expansion and maintenance. Single-sector interventions deliver marginal gains, leaving the dominant feedback architecture intact. Scenarios emphasizing health, environment, and social fabric attenuate the decline by capturing co-benefits—better air, thermal comfort, active living, and greater use of public space—while the integrated package combining health, environment, active mobility, and urban capacity achieves the best performance. Yet none produces a regime shift without concurrent changes in governance and demand management capable of addressing rebound effects. Demographic simulations (1928–2030) exhibit a logistic S-curve approaching the district’s effective carrying capacity, explaining the near-stationary population from 2024 to 2030 and reinforcing the need to raise well-being through systemic synergies rather than growth. The contribution is twofold: theoretical–methodological, by linking intersystem synergies to a testable system-dynamics representation and indicator framework; and practical, by delivering a replicable tool to identify leverage points, estimate co-benefits and risks, and coordinate smart, sustainable interventions across sectors and scales. The findings support a shift from siloed actions to integrated bundles that reconfigure feedbacks, shorten delays, and steer the city toward higher well-being trajectories.
dc.format.extent113 pp
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.48713/10336_46855
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/46855
dc.language.isospa
dc.publisherUniversidad del Rosario
dc.publisher.departmentEscuela de Ciencias e Ingeniería
dc.publisher.departmentFacultad de Estudios Internacionales, Políticos y Urbanos
dc.publisher.programMaestría en Ciudades Inteligentes y Sostenibles
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)
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dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR
dc.subjectDinámica de sistemas
dc.subjectSinergias urbanas
dc.subjectBienestar urbano
dc.subject.keywordSystem dynamics
dc.subject.keywordUrban synergies
dc.subject.keywordCausal loop diagrams
dc.titleSinergia entre sistemas urbanos y su papel en la generación de bienestar en las ciudades
dc.title.TranslatedTitleSynergy between urban systems and their role in generating well-being in cities
dc.typemasterThesis
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.type.spaTrabajo de grado
local.department.reportFacultad de Estudios Internacionales, Políticos y Urbanos
local.department.reportEscuela de Ciencias e Ingeniería
local.regionesBogotá
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