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Projected Changes in Climate Extremes over Colombia from high-resolution bias-corrected CMIP6 models

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dc.contributor.advisorÁvila Díaz, Álvaro Javier
dc.contributor.advisorQuesada, Benjamín Raphael
dc.contributor.gruplacInteracciones Clima - Ecosistemas (ICE)
dc.creatorTabares Bateman, Juan Felipe
dc.creator.degreeProfesional en Ciencias del Tierra
dc.creator.degreeLevelPregardo
dc.date.accessioned2026-04-10T21:58:45Z
dc.date.available2026-04-10T21:58:45Z
dc.date.created2026-04-09
dc.date.embargoEndinfo:eu-repo/date/embargoEnd/2028-04-14
dc.descriptionLos extremos climáticos representan riesgos crecientes para Colombia; sin embargo, las evaluaciones a escala nacional sobre cambios futuros siguen siendo limitadas. En este estudio evaluamos los cambios proyectados en los extremos de temperatura y precipitación en Colombia utilizando 16 índices ETCCDI derivados de 31 modelos NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 reducidos de escala, útiles por su alta resolución y corrección de sesgos. El desempeño de los modelos fue evaluado frente a CHIRPS y ERA5-Land mediante un ranking basado en métricas de desempeño. Las proyecciones se analizaron a través de un enfoque de ensamble multimodelo para cinco regiones naturales bajo los escenarios SSP2-4.5 y SSP5-8.5 durante los periodos 2021–2050 y 2071–2100. Los resultados indican una intensificación robusta de los extremos cálidos a nivel nacional, con un aumento proyectado de la temperatura máxima anual de aproximadamente 1.2–1.5 °C en promedio hacia mediados de siglo, y de 2.7 a 5.1 °C hacia finales de siglo en ambos escenarios, tomando como referencia el periodo 1985–2014. Las noches cálidas, los días cálidos y la duración de las olas de calor aumentan de manera marcada, con el índice WSDI superando los 120 días en el centro de Colombia hacia 2050. Las respuestas de la precipitación son más heterogéneas espacialmente: la región Pacífica tiende a condiciones más húmedas y a extremos de precipitación más intensos, mientras que el Caribe, la Amazonía y la Orinoquía presentan periodos secos más prolongados, lo que implica que incluso las regiones más secas pueden experimentar un aumento en eventos de lluvias intensas. Al mismo tiempo, los índices de intensidad de la precipitación aumentan en la mayoría de las regiones, lo que indica que las tendencias hacia condiciones más secas pueden coexistir con eventos de lluvias intensas más fuertes. Estos hallazgos resaltan marcados contrastes regionales en el riesgo climático futuro y subrayan la necesidad de estrategias diferenciadas de adaptación y gestión del riesgo en Colombia. A pesar de las incertidumbres asociadas a la escasez de observaciones y a la variabilidad entre modelos, este estudio proporciona una base actualizada para la evaluación de extremos climáticos en un país tropical altamente vulnerable.
dc.description.abstractClimate extremes pose growing risks to Colombia, yet national-scale assessments of future changes remain limited. Here, we evaluate projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across Colombia using 16 ETCCDI indices derived from 31 downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models, which are useful for their high resolution and bias corrections. Model performance was assessed against CHIRPS and ERA5-Land through a performance metric ranking. Projections were analyzed through a multi-model ensemble framework for five natural regions under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Results indicate a robust nationwide intensification of warm extremes, with annual maximum temperature projected to rise by about 1.2–1.5 °C on average by mid-century, and by 2.7-5.1 °C by late-century under both scenarios taking the period 1985-2014 as reference. Warm nights, warm days, and warm spell duration increase markedly, with WSDI exceeding 120 days in central Colombia by 2050. Precipitation responses are more spatially heterogeneous: the Pacific region tends toward wetter conditions and stronger precipitation extremes, whereas the Caribbean, Amazon, and Orinoquía show longer dry periods, this means that even drier regions may experience an increase in heavy rainfall events. At the same time, rainfall intensity indices increase in most regions, indicating that drying trends may coexist with more intense heavy-rainfall events. These findings highlight strong regional contrasts in future climate risk and underscore the need for differentiated adaptation and risk-management strategies across Colombia. Despite uncertainties associated with sparse observations and inter-model variability, this study provides an updated baseline for climate-extremes assessment in a highly vulnerable tropical country.
dc.format.extent40 pp
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.48713/10336_47700
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/47700
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherUniversidad del Rosario
dc.publisher.departmentEscuela de Ciencias e Ingeniería
dc.publisher.programPregrado en Ciencias del Sistema Tierra
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International*
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
dc.rights.accesoRestringido (Temporalmente bloqueado)
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
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dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR
dc.subjectÍndices climáticos
dc.subjectAnálisis Multi-Modelo
dc.subjectSequías
dc.subjectInundaciones
dc.subjectRiesgos climáticos
dc.subjectMitigación y Adaptación
dc.subject.keywordClimate indices
dc.subject.keywordWarm extremes
dc.subject.keywordMulti-Model Analysis
dc.subject.keywordClimate Risks
dc.subject.keywordMitigation and Adaptation
dc.titleProjected Changes in Climate Extremes over Colombia from high-resolution bias-corrected CMIP6 models
dc.title.TranslatedTitleCambios proyectados en los extremos climáticos en Colombia a partir de modelos CMIP6 corregidos de alta-resolución
dc.typebachelorThesis
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
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local.department.reportEscuela de Ciencias e Ingeniería
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