Ítem
Acceso Abierto
Dinámica de sistemas en destinos emergentes: diagramas causales y dominancia de bucles del sistema turístico de La Guajira
| dc.contributor.advisor | Ibarra Vega, Danny | |
| dc.creator | Enríquez Estrada, Luis Carlos | |
| dc.creator.degree | Magíster en Ciudades Inteligentes y Sostenibles | |
| dc.creator.degreeLevel | Maestría | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-09T20:11:22Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-07-09T20:11:22Z | |
| dc.date.created | 2026-06-10 | |
| dc.description | Esta investigación aborda el sistema turístico del departamento de La Guajira y propone un marco cualitativo de análisis sistémico, basado en dinámica de sistemas, para identificar bucles de retroalimentación y palancas de intervención orientadas al desarrollo turístico territorial. El estudio se enmarca en un diseño cualitativo-exploratorio que construye modelos causales conceptuales, e incorpora como referente conceptual la modelación basada en agentes para aproximarse a la comprensión de la heterogeneidad de actores. En consecuencia, no genera predicciones cuantitativas sobre flujos turísticos, ingresos o impactos ambientales; su valor reside en identificar la arquitectura causal del sistema y palancas de intervención territorial, como insumos para la planificación turística territorial. El punto de partida es la brecha entre el discurso del turismo como "motor de desarrollo" y la realidad de un destino emergente marcado por pobreza estructural, degradación ambiental, informalidad, fragmentación institucional y conflictos socio-territoriales. Metodológicamente, el estudio articula revisión documental y estadística (NDTT, Programa de Gestión Integral de Destinos 2020–2023, planes y anuarios), construcción de un compendio de variables organizadas en seis dimensiones interrelacionadas, elaboración de diagramas causales (CLD) por dimensión y diseño de una matriz de dominancia de bucles aplicada por subregión (Alta, Media y Baja Guajira), de la cual se derivan recomendaciones de intervención. Los resultados muestran que el sistema turístico está gobernado por la interacción entre bucles reforzadores de crecimiento —atractivo–experiencia–reputación–demanda; demanda–ingresos–inversión–capacidad— y bucles de límite asociados a infraestructura, degradación socioambiental, informalidad económica, fragmentación de la gobernanza, debilidad de la inteligencia territorial e inseguridad. En la Alta Guajira se identifica el riesgo de colapso en destinos icónicos por ausencia de ordenamiento turístico y capacidades básicas; en la Media y Baja Guajira se observa un crecimiento frágil y poco inclusivo, condicionado por cuellos de botella en servicios públicos y por una licencia social inestable. La matriz de dominancia de bucles permite priorizar intervenciones y deriva en un conjunto de palancas para dinamizar cambios estructurales en el territorio como el ordenamiento turístico, la consolidación de infraestructura esencial en nodos críticos, la gobernanza multinivel e intercultural, los sistema de información e inteligencia turística, la formalización y encadenamientos locales, la gestión ambiental y el ecoturismo, mecanismos de distribución de beneficios y gestión de riesgos y crisis. La tesis contribuye a operacionalizar el enfoque de sistemas complejos en destinos emergentes y ofrece un marco replicable para orientar políticas y programas de planificación turística territorial inteligente. | |
| dc.description.abstract | This thesis addresses the tourism system of the department of La Guajira and proposes a qualitative framework for systemic analysis, grounded in system dynamics, to identify feedback loops and intervention levers for territorial tourism development. The study adopts a qualitative-exploratory design that builds conceptual causal models —not simulation models—: it does not formulate stock-and-flow equations, calibrate parameters, run computational scenarios, or develop an executable agent-based model (ABM); ABM is invoked only as a conceptual lens to read actor heterogeneity. Accordingly, the study does not generate quantitative forecasts of tourist flows, revenues, or environmental impacts; its contribution lies in uncovering the causal architecture of the system and in deriving territorial intervention levers. The starting point is the gap between the narrative of tourism as an "engine of development" and the reality of an emerging destination marked by structural poverty, environmental degradation, informality, institutional fragmentation, and socio-territorial conflicts. Methodologically, the study combines documentary and statistical review (NDTT, Comprehensive Destination Management Program 2020–2023, sectoral plans and yearbooks), the construction of a compendium of variables organized into six interrelated dimensions, the development of causal loop diagrams (CLD) per dimension, and the design of a loop dominance matrix applied by subregion (Upper, Middle, and Lower Guajira), from which intervention recommendations are derived. The findings show that the Guajira tourism system is governed by the interaction between reinforcing growth loops —attractiveness–experience–reputation–demand; demand–income–investment–capacity— and limiting loops associated with deficient infrastructure, socio-environmental degradation, economic informality, fragmented governance, weak territorial intelligence, and insecurity. In Upper Guajira, the risk of collapse is identified in iconic enclaves due to the absence of tourism planning and basic capacities; in Middle and Lower Guajira, fragile and non-inclusive growth is observed, conditioned by bottlenecks in public services and an unstable social license. The loop dominance matrix enables the prioritization of interventions and yields a set of strategic levers: tourism planning, essential infrastructure in critical nodes, multi-level and intercultural governance, a tourism information and intelligence system, formalization and local value chains, environmental management and ecotourism, benefit-sharing mechanisms, and risk and crisis management. This thesis thus contributes to operationalizing the complex systems approach in emerging destinations and offers a replicable framework to guide policies and programs for smart territorial tourism planning. | |
| dc.format.extent | 111 pp | |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
| dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.48713/10336_48026 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/48026 | |
| dc.language.iso | spa | |
| dc.publisher | Universidad del Rosario | |
| dc.publisher.department | Escuela de Ciencias e Ingeniería | |
| dc.publisher.department | Facultad de Estudios Internacionales, Políticos y Urbanos | |
| dc.publisher.program | Maestría en Ciudades Inteligentes y Sostenibles | |
| dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International | * |
| dc.rights.accesRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
| dc.rights.acceso | Abierto (Texto Completo) | |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ | * |
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| dc.source.instname | instname:Universidad del Rosario | |
| dc.source.reponame | reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR | |
| dc.subject | Dinámica de sistemas | |
| dc.subject | Destinos emergentes | |
| dc.subject | Diagramas causales | |
| dc.subject | Dominancia de bucles | |
| dc.subject | Gobernanza turística | |
| dc.subject | Inteligencia territorial | |
| dc.subject | Palancas de intervención | |
| dc.subject.keyword | System dynamics | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Emerging destinations | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Causal loop diagrams | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Loop dominance | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Tourism governance | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Territorial intelligence | |
| dc.title | Dinámica de sistemas en destinos emergentes: diagramas causales y dominancia de bucles del sistema turístico de La Guajira | |
| dc.title.TranslatedTitle | System Dynamics in Emerging Destinations: Causal Loop Diagrams and Loop Dominance in the Tourism System of La Guajira | |
| dc.type | masterThesis | |
| dc.type.hasVersion | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion | |
| dc.type.spa | Tesis de maestría | |
| local.department.report | Escuela de Ciencias Humanas | |
| local.department.report | Escuela de Ciencias e Ingeniería | |
| local.regiones | Bogotá |
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