16 resultados
Resultados de la búsqueda
Mostrando1 - 10 de 16
ÍtemSolo MetadatosColombia: Democracy, violence, and the peacebuilding challenge(2018) Flores T.E.; Vargas Duque, Juan FernandoAfter years of painstaking negotiations and political obstacles, the end to the conflict between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government appears irreversible. Daunting challenges to the implementation of the agreement remain, however. The five pieces in this special issue rigorously examine those challenges. In doing so, they explore how the field of peace science can help us understand Colombia’s transition from war to peace and how Colombia raises new unexplored questions for scholars. This introduction describes the principal findings of the special issue before offering tangible advice to peacebuilders working in Colombia. © The Author(s) 2018.- ÍtemSolo MetadatosRebellion, Repression and Welfare(2011) Vargas Duque, Juan FernandoI develop a dynamic model of social conflict whereby manifest grievances of the poor generate the incentive of taking over political power violently. Rebellion can be an equilibrium outcome depending on the level of preexisting inequality between the poor and the ruling elite, the relative military capabilities of the two groups and the destructiveness of conflict. Once a technology of repression is introduced, widespread fear reduces the parameter space for which rebellion is an equilibrium outcome. However, I show that repression-driven peace comes at a cost as it produces a welfare loss to society. © 2011 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
- ÍtemSolo MetadatosTrue Believers, Deserters, and Traitors: Who Leaves Insurgent Groups and Why(2015) Oppenheim, Ben; Steele, Abbey; Vargas Duque, Juan Fernando; Weintraub, MichaelAnti-insurgent militias and states attempt to erode insurgent groups’ capacities and co-opt insurgent fighters by promising and providing benefits. They do so to create a perception that the insurgency is unraveling and to harness inside information to prosecute more effective counterinsurgency campaigns. Why do some insurgents defect to a paramilitary group and others exit the war by demobilizing, while still others remain loyal to their group? This article presents the first empirical analysis of these questions, connecting insurgents’ motivations for joining, wartime experiences, and organizational behavior with decisions to defect. A survey of ex-combatants in Colombia shows that individuals who joined for ideological reasons are less likely to defect overall but more likely to side-switch or demobilize when their group deviates from its ideological precepts. Among fighters who joined for economic reasons, political indoctrination works to decrease their chances of demobilization and defection to paramilitaries, while opportunities for looting decrease economically motivated combatants’ odds of defection. © 2015, © The Author(s) 2015.
- ÍtemSolo MetadatosMeasuring the Size and Growth of Cities Using Nighttime Light(2020-04) Ch, Rafael; Martin, Diego A.; Vargas Duque, Juan FernandoThis paper uses nighttime luminosity to estimate a globally comparable measure of the size of metropolitan areas around the world for the years 2000 and 2010. We apply recently-proposed methodologies that correct the known problems of available nighttime luminosity data including blurring, instability of lit pixels overtime and the reduced comparability of night light images across satellites and across time. We then develop a protocol that isolates stable nighttime lit pixels that constitute urban footprint. When analyzed together with existing geo-referenced population datasets, our measure of the size of metropolitan areas can be used to compute urbanization rates, urban densities, and study the size distribution of cities. We show these applications and discuss how they compare with other available figures. © 2020 Elsevier Inc.
- ÍtemSolo MetadatosEmpowering IDPs with SMS: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Bogota(2010) Blanco, Mariana; Vargas Duque, Juan FernandoA randomized controlled trial was carried out in Bogota, home to the majority of Colombia’s internally displaced persons (IDPs), to assess whether the use of short message service (SMS) technology effectively informed this population of its eligibility to receive social benefits. The methodology was to randomly inform half of the sample population’s households of their eligibility via SMS and estimate the Local Average Treatment Effect of the text message on the awareness of available benefits. While the findings conclude that on average treated households are more aware of their rights, a more disaggregated analysis suggests there is variation of awareness across benefit type. The analysis further suggests that the intervention was successful in empowering IDPs and indicates that the use of SMS as a policy instrument should be expanded.
- ÍtemSolo MetadatosColombia: Introduction To A Special Issue Of Defence And Peace Economics(2012-04) Brauer, Jurgen; Vargas Duque, Juan FernandoEl conjunto de artículos para este número especial de Defensa y Economía de la Paz surgió del período de J. Brauer como profesor visitante de economía en la Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia, en el otoño de 2009, donde J. Vargas es profesor de economía. . Todos los artículos en este número especial tratan del caso de Colombia, un país que desde su independencia hace unos 200 años podría decirse que nunca ha conocido un período de 'no conflicto', ciertamente no en los últimos 50 o 60 años durante que la violencia motivada política y criminalmente ha sacudido a la ciudad y al campo por igual. Todos los artículos han sido revisados ??por pares, primero en un taller de un día de duración con presentaciones formales, comentaristas y debates celebrados en la Universidad del Rosario el 16 de noviembre de 2010, y por los cuales agradecemos y agradecemos a los patrocinadores en Rosario, y luego a través de revisión externa anónima por pares también. Aunque específicos para Colombia en su aplicación, todos los artículos llevan mensajes que son relevantes más allá del caso específico de Colombia. Esto es por diseño: deseamos no solo resaltar las habilidades profesionales de los economistas colombianos, sino más importante elegir temas, problemas, ideas y métodos que serían relevantes y podrían adoptarse en otros lugares.
- ÍtemSolo MetadatosEndogenous Taxation in Ongoing Internal Conflict: The Case of Colombia(2018) CH, RAFAEL; SHAPIRO, JACOB; STEELE, ABBEY; Vargas Duque, Juan FernandoRecent empirical evidence suggests an ambiguous relationship between internal conflicts, state capacity, and tax performance. In theory, internal conflict should create strong incentives for governments to develop the fiscal capacity necessary to defeat rivals. We argue that one reason that this does not occur is because internal conflict enables groups with de facto power to capture local fiscal and property rights institutions. We test this mechanism in Colombia using data on tax performance and property rights institutions at the municipal level. Municipalities affected by internal conflict have tax institutions consistent with the preferences of the parties dominating local violence. Those suffering more right-wing violence feature more land formalization and higher property tax revenues. Municipalities with substantial left-wing guerrilla violence collect less tax revenue and witness less land formalization. Our findings provide systematic evidence that internal armed conflict helps interest groups capture municipal institutions for their own private benefit, impeding state-building. Copyright © American Political Science Association 2018.
- ÍtemSolo MetadatosThe persistent Colombian conflict: Subnational analysis of the duration of violence(2012) Vargas Duque, Juan FernandoFocusing on the Colombian armed conflict, this paper develops for the first time a within-country analysis of violence duration. It examines a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level for the period 1988-2004, including geographic factors, economic and social variables, institutional characteristics, victimization variables and government intervention. It individuates the most robust correlates of the persistence of localized conflict, both across specifications and using different econometric models of duration analysis. Results suggest that violence in Colombia is more persistent in places where illegal rents are available. Better quality institutions and a more active military are in turn associated with shorter conflict episodes. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
- ÍtemSolo MetadatosStrategic atrocities: civilians under crossfire - theory and evidence from Colombia(2016-08) Vargas Duque, Juan Fernando; Anderton, Charles H.; Brauer, JurgenArmed actors in civil war often target civilians to create fear and punish allegiance with the enemy. This strategy secures collaboration with the perpetrator, strengthening its civilian support, and helps the consolidation of territorial supremacy over contested regions. In this chapter, I illustrate this strategic use of atrocities with a model involving two armed groups who fight over territorial control and who try to secure compliance of local civilians through a combination of carrots and sticks. I study the conditions that lead to more or less civilians killed and illustrate the main theoretical arguments with descriptive evidence from the recent history of Colombia’s civil war.
- ÍtemSolo MetadatosDoes the unemployment benefit institution affect the productivity of workers? Evidence from the field(2017) Blanco, Mariana; Dalton P.S.; Vargas Duque, Juan FernandoThis paper studies the effects of unemployment benefit schemes on individual productivity. We created employment and unemployment in the field and compared workers' productivity under no unemployment benefits to productivity under two different unemployment schemes. In one scheme, the unemployed received an unconditional monetary transfer. In the other, the monetary transfer was obtained conditional on the unemployed spending some time on an ancillary activity. Our results challenge the standard economic theory prediction that unemployment benefits, especially unconditional compensations, hinder workers' effort. We find that workers employed under the unconditional scheme are more productive than workers under the conditional one, and both schemes make workers more productive than having no unemployment benefit. We discuss two possible explanations for our results based on reciprocity and differential psychological costs of unemployment across unemployment benefit schemes. © 2016 INFORMS.
