Alianza EFI
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La Alianza EFI -Economía Formal e Inclusiva- es un ecosistema científico en el que convergen la academia y el sector productivo para generar diagnósticos, diseñar y evaluar políticas que impulsen la inclusión de los agentes económicos en la formalidad, entendiendo y mejorando su productividad.
La Alianza EFI está conformada por 7 Instituciones de Educación Superior, 7 representantes del sector productivo y cuenta con la participación y acompañamiento de investigadores de 5 instituciones de renombre internacional (University of Oxford, University of Pennsylvania, Paris School of Economics, University of Milano-Bicocca, y University of Illinois at Chicago).
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The Fiscal Impact of Immigration: Labor Displacement, Wages, and the Allocation of Public Spending(2022-12-01) Mesa Guerra, Carlos Antonio; Castaño, AndrésWe reexamine the effect of immigration on public finances by accounting for second-order effects. We exploit exogenous variation in immigration across Colombian metropolitan areas between 2013 and 2018, resulting from the large increase in Venezuelan immigrants, and instrument immigrants’ residential location using pre-existing settlement patterns and the distance between origin-destination flows. We find that immigration did not reduce natives’ average fiscal contributions. Exploring the mechanisms in place, we document that immigration had no effect on employment, average wages in the upper half of the wage distribution, or hours worked that would have explained changes in labor-driven tax contributions. In addition, immigration did not trigger a decline in property values, and we find no evidence of changes in the composition of local public spending or costs being distributed among a larger population. This suggests that the composition of public expenditures is biased towards services that are rival in consumption and thus increase with population. Results in this paper indicate that, even when finding evidence of labor displacement or negative factor prices, immigration does not necessarily reduce natives’ average tax contributions. - ÍtemAcceso Abierto‘When a Stranger Shall Sojourn with Thee': The Impact of the Venezuelan Exodus on Colombian Labor Markets(2022-02-01) Santamaria, JuliethThis paper analyzes the effect of open-door immigration policies on local labor markets. Using the sharp and unprecedented surge of Venezuelan refugees into Colombia, I study the impact on wages and employment in a context where work permits were granted at scale. To identify which labor markets immigrants are entering, I overcome limitations in official records and generate novel evidence of refugee settlement patterns by tracking the geographical distribution of Internet search terms that Venezuelans but not Colombians use. While official records suggest migrants are concentrated in a few cities, the Internet search index shows migrants are located across the country. Using this index, high-frequency labor market data, and a difference-in-differences design, I find precise null effects on employment and wages in the formal and informal sectors. A machine learning approach that compares counterfactual cities with locations most impacted by immigration yields similar results. All in all, the results suggest that open-door policies do not harm labor markets in the host community.
- ÍtemAcceso AbiertoPossible effects of Coronavirus in the Colombian labour(2020-05-01) Cárdenas Rubio, Jeisson Arley, Jaime MontanaThe COVID-19 pandemic and its social distancing measures have brought unprecedented socio-economic challenges worldwide. One of the most urgent questions is how the labour force will be affected by the pandemic. The answer to this question will have considerable impact on the countries’ productivity, poverty and unemployment rates, etc. Consequently, the measurement of jobs which can be performed without increasing the risk of contagion has become a priority. However, due to the lack of proper information, less advanced countries such as Colombia (where unemployment and informality rates are high - around 10.5% and 46.2%, respectively in 2019) face huge challenges in making such estimations. Thus, we contribute to the debate by adapting different international work-from-home and proximity measures and estimated the proportion of workers in the corresponding groups according to the context of a developing country such as Colombia. Our results suggest that a fifth of jobs in Colombia can potentially be done from home. While around 10% of Colombian workers have a high degree of physical interaction with other people.
- ÍtemAcceso AbiertoInternal and external validity of the vacancy database(2020-04-01) Cárdenas Rubio, Jeisson ArleyThis paper provides an evaluation of the internal and external consistency of the vacancy information. The consistency of the variables within the vacancy database or internal validity shows that the contradictory or inconsistent results that occurred in the Colombian vacancy database were minor, and the magnitude of these measurement errors are insufficient to bias the educational, occupational, sectorial, skills and wage analyses. The results of data representativeness or external validity were: 1) the vacancy database is not representative for a significant part of agricultural, government and armed force occupations; 2) particular caution should be taken when analysing occupations with high turnover rates as this issue might cause an overrepresentation of specific occupational groups; and, 3) self-employed individuals and informal occupations are not represented in the vacancy database. This evidence suggests that the vacancy database better represents the formal and urban Colombian labour market. Finally, the job portal information captures and expresses the Colombian economic seasons.
- ÍtemAcceso AbiertoDescriptive analysis of the vacancy database(2020-03-01) Cárdenas Rubio, Jeisson ArleyGiven the high cost of collecting labour demand for skills information through surveys, the composition and dynamics of Colombian labour demand are relatively unknown. However, information regarding unmet labour demand can be collected from job portals with the implementation of relatively novel data mining techniques. This paper provides a descriptive analysis to start evaluating the data from job portals. Among the main results of my analysis of the vacancy database show that 1) job vacancies are concentrated in Bogotá, Antioquia and Bolivar; 2) most of the job positions require a person with at least a high school certificate; 3) most occupations in Colombia correspond to middle- (“Sales demonstrators”) and low-skilled occupations (“Kitchen helpers”); 4) the skills most demanded include “Customer service” (knowledge), “Communication” (knowledge) and “Work in teams” (competence). Thus, the vacancy database provided detailed, real-time and valuable information about the Colombian labour demand that, previously, it was not possible to obtain from other sources (e.g. household surveys). Moreover, these initial results suggest that the vacancy database is consistent, or at least it does not contradict itself or external data, such as regional GDP, population, etc.
