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Probabilistic spatial-temporal prediction of total and severe epidemic of dengue in Colombia

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dc.creatorRodríguez-Velásquez J.O.spa
dc.creatorPrieto-Bohórquez S.E.spa
dc.creatorPérez-Díaz C.E.spa
dc.creatorPardo Oviedo, Juan Mauriciospa
dc.creatorCorrea-Herrera S.C.spa
dc.creatorMendoza-Beltrán F.C.spa
dc.creatorBravo-Ojeda J.S.spa
dc.creatorMorales-Pertuz C.A.spa
dc.creatorRojas-Avila N.A.spa
dc.creatorFlórez-Cárdenas M.spa
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-26T00:00:04Z
dc.date.available2020-05-26T00:00:04Z
dc.date.created2018spa
dc.description.abstractObjective To establish a new predictive methodology to determine the proportion of severe dengue with respect to the annual total of dengue infections per department based on the probability theory. Materials and Methods Based on annual data on the number of infected persons by department in the period 2005-2010, the proportion of cases of severe dengue was calculated with respect to the total for each year. Probability spaces were constructed to evaluate these events in the ranges 0.5 and 0.3. Sets of ranges were determined and probability, mean square deviation and the difference between them were estimated. A prediction of the range of infected people for 2011 was made using the arithmetic average of the values of the last two years. Results The range in which the proportion of the number of people infected with severe dengue is included with respect to the total amount in each department was correctly predicted, with an effectiveness of 93.3% for the 0.5 range and 86.7% for the 0.3 range. Conclusion A mathematical spatial-temporal self-organization was found in the proportion of severe dengue with respect to the total, which allows establishing useful predictions for decision-making in public health. © 2018, Universidad Nacional de Colombia. All rights reserved.eng
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.15446/rsap.v20n3.42701
dc.identifier.issn1240064
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23157
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombiaspa
dc.relation.citationEndPage358
dc.relation.citationIssueNo. 3
dc.relation.citationStartPage352
dc.relation.citationTitleRevista de Salud Publica
dc.relation.citationVolumeVol. 20
dc.relation.ispartofRevista de Salud Publica, ISSN:1240064, Vol.20, No.3 (2018); pp. 352-358spa
dc.relation.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85057819969&doi=10.15446%2frsap.v20n3.42701&partnerID=40&md5=116d49d67502c55a7698076cbed79d36spa
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURspa
dc.subject.keywordBiological modelspa
dc.subject.keywordColombiaspa
dc.subject.keywordbiologicaleng
dc.subject.keywordEpidemicspa
dc.subject.keywordHumanspa
dc.subject.keywordProbabilityspa
dc.subject.keywordSevere denguespa
dc.subject.keywordSpatiotemporal analysisspa
dc.subject.keywordColombiaspa
dc.subject.keywordEpidemicsspa
dc.subject.keywordHumansspa
dc.subject.keywordModelseng
dc.subject.keywordProbabilityspa
dc.subject.keywordSevere denguespa
dc.subject.keywordSpatio-temporal analysisspa
dc.subject.keywordDenguespa
dc.subject.keywordEpidemicsspa
dc.subject.keywordProbabilityspa
dc.subject.keywordSevere dengueeng
dc.titleProbabilistic spatial-temporal prediction of total and severe epidemic of dengue in Colombiaspa
dc.title.TranslatedTitlePredicción espacio-temporal probabilista de la epidemia de dengue total y grave en Colombiaspa
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.spaArtículospa
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