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Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior

dc.creatorAycinena Abascal, Diego
dc.creatorBlazsek, Szabolcs
dc.creatorRentschler, Lucas
dc.creatorSprenger, Charles
dc.descriptionLos experimentos de elección intertemporal se implementan con frecuencia para hacer inferencias sobre las preferencias de tiempo, aunque se sabe poco sobre el poder predictivo de las medidas resultantes. Este proyecto vincula las opciones experimentales estándar con una decisión sobre el deseo de suavizar un pago de grandes apuestas (alrededor del 10% de los ingresos anuales) a lo largo del tiempo. En una muestra de alrededor de 400 receptores de transferencias monetarias condicionadas en Guatemala, encontramos que las preferencias sobre los planes de pago de grandes apuestas se predicen de cerca mediante medidas experimentales de paciencia y utilidad marginal decreciente. Estos representan los primeros hallazgos en la literatura sobre el contenido predictivo de preferencias intertemporales obtenidas experimentalmente para decisiones de gran importancia.spa
dc.description.abstractIntertemporal choice experiments are frequently implemented to make inference about time preferences, yet little is known about the predictive power of resulting measures. This project links standard experimental choices to a decision on the desire to smooth a large-stakes payment — around 10% of annual income — through time. In a sample of around 400 Guatemalan Conditional Cash Transfer recipients, we find that preferences over large-stakes payment plans are closely predicted by experimental measures of patience and diminishing marginal utility. These represent the first findings in the literature on the predictive content of experimentally elicited intertemporal preferences for large-stakes decisions.spa
dc.format.extent61 pp.spa
dc.identifier.citationAycinena, Diego; Blazsek, Szabolcs; Rentschler, Lucas; Sprenger, Charles (2020) Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior. Universidad del Rosario, Department of Economics, Documentos de trabajo economía. 61 pp.spa
dc.relation.citationTitleSerie Documentos de trabajo. Economía
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 2.5 Colombiaspa
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
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dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURspa
dc.subjectEstimación estructuralspa
dc.subjectPresupuesto de tiempo convexospa
dc.subjectPredicción fuera de muestraspa
dc.subject.ddcEconomía financieraspa
dc.subject.keywordStructural estimationspa
dc.subject.keywordConvex Time Budgetspa
dc.subject.keywordOut-of-sample predictionspa
dc.titleIntertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behaviorspa
dc.type.spaDocumento de trabajospa
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