Acceso Abierto

Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior

dc.creatorAycinena Abascal, Diego
dc.creatorBlazsek, Szabolcs
dc.creatorRentschler, Lucas
dc.creatorSprenger, Charles
dc.descriptionLos experimentos de elección intertemporal se implementan con frecuencia para hacer inferencias sobre las preferencias de tiempo, aunque se sabe poco sobre el poder predictivo de las medidas resultantes. Este proyecto vincula las opciones experimentales estándar con una decisión sobre el deseo de suavizar un pago de grandes apuestas (alrededor del 10% de los ingresos anuales) a lo largo del tiempo. En una muestra de alrededor de 400 receptores de transferencias monetarias condicionadas en Guatemala, encontramos que las preferencias sobre los planes de pago de grandes apuestas se predicen de cerca mediante medidas experimentales de paciencia y utilidad marginal decreciente. Estos representan los primeros hallazgos en la literatura sobre el contenido predictivo de preferencias intertemporales obtenidas experimentalmente para decisiones de gran importancia.spa
dc.description.abstractIntertemporal choice experiments are frequently implemented to make inference about time preferences, yet little is known about the predictive power of resulting measures. This project links standard experimental choices to a decision on the desire to smooth a large-stakes payment — around 10% of annual income — through time. In a sample of around 400 Guatemalan Conditional Cash Transfer recipients, we find that preferences over large-stakes payment plans are closely predicted by experimental measures of patience and diminishing marginal utility. These represent the first findings in the literature on the predictive content of experimentally elicited intertemporal preferences for large-stakes decisions.spa
dc.format.extent61 pp.spa
dc.identifier.citationAycinena, Diego; Blazsek, Szabolcs; Rentschler, Lucas; Sprenger, Charles (2020) Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior. Universidad del Rosario, Department of Economics, Documentos de trabajo economía. 61 pp.spa
dc.relation.citationTitleSerie Documentos de trabajo. Economía
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 2.5 Colombiaspa
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationAnderhub, Vital, Werner Guth, Uri Gneezy, and Doron Sonsino, “On the Interaction of Risk and Time Preferences: An Experimental Study,” German Economic Review, 2001, 2 (3), 239–253spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationAndersen, Ste↵en, Glenn W. Harrison, Morten I. Lau, and Elisabet E. Rutstrom, “Eliciting Risk and Time Preferences,” Econometrica, 2008, 76 (3), 583–618spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationAndreoni, James and Charles Sprenger, “Estimating Time Preferences with Convex Budgets,” American Economic Review, 2012, 102 (7), 3333–3356spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationChristina Gravert, Michael A Kuhn, Silvia Saccardo, and Yang Yang, “Arbitrage Or Narrow Bracketing? On Using Money to Measure Intertemporal Preferences,” Technical Report, National Bureau of Economic Research 2018spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationMichael A Kuhn, and Charles Sprenger, “Measuring Time Preferences: A Comparison of Experimental Methods,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2015, 116, 451– 464.spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationMichael Callen, Yasir Khan, Karrar Ja↵ar, and Charles Sprenger, “Using Preference Estimates to Customize Incentives: An Application to Polio Vaccination Drives in Pakistan,” NBER Working Paper No. 22019, 2018spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationApesteguia, Jose and Miguel A. Ballester, “Monotone Stochastic Choice Models: The Case of Risk and Time Preferences,” Journal of Political Economy, 2018, 126 (1), 74–106spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationAshraf, Nava, Dean Karlan, and Wesley Yin, “Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence from a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2006, 121 (1), 635–672spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationAttema, Arthur E., Han Bleichrodt, Yu Gao, Zhenxing Huang, and Peter P. Wakker, “Measuring Discounting without Measuring Utility,” American Economic Review, 2016, 106 (6), 1476–1494spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationAugenblick, Ned, Muriel Niederle, and Charles Sprenger, “Working Over Time: Dynamic Inconsistency in Real E↵ort Tasks,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2015, 130 (3), 1067–1115spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationCagetti, Marco, “Wealth Accumulation Over the Life Cycle and Precautionary Savings,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2003, 21 (3), 339–353spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationCard, David, Stefano DellaVigna, and Ulrike Malmendier, “The Role of Theory in Field Experiments,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2011, 25 (3), 39–62spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationCarvalho, Leandro S., Stephan Meier, and Stephanie W. Wang, “Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday,” American Economic Review, 2016, 106 (2), 260–284spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationChabris, Christopher F., David Laibson, and Jonathon P. Schuldt, “Intertemporal Choice,” in Steven N. Durlauf and Larry Blume, eds., The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationCarrie Morris, Jonathon Schuldt, and Dmitry Taubinsky, “Individual Laboratory-Measured Discount Rates Predict Field Behavior,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2008, 37 (2-3), 237–269spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationChakraborty, Anujit, Evan M. Calford, Guidon Fenig, and Yoram Halevy, “External and Internal Consistency of Choices Made in Convex Time Budgets,” Experimental Economics, 2017, 20 (3), 687–706spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationCubitt, Robin P. and Daniel Read, “Can Intertemporal Choice Experiments Elicit Preferences for Consumption?,” Experimental Economics, 2007, 10 (4), 369–389spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationDellaVigna, Stefano and Ulrike Malmendier, “Paying Not to Go to the Gym,” American Economic Review, 2006, 96 (3), 694–719spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationFang, Hanming and Yang Wang, “Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting, with an Application to Mammography Decisions,” International Economic Review, 2015, 56 (2), 565–596spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationFrederick, Shane, George Loewenstein, and Ted O’Donoghue, “Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review,” Journal of Economic Literature, 2002, 40 (2), 351–401spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationGeary, Roy C., “A Note on ’A Constant-Utility Index of the Cost of Living’,” Review of Economic Studies, 1950, 18 (2), 65–66spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationGin´e, Xavier, Jessica Goldberg, Dan Silverman, and Dean Yang, “Revising Commitments: Field Evidence on the Adjustment of Prior Choices,” NBER Working Paper No. 18065, 2012spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationHarrison, Glenn W., Morten I. Lau, and Elisabet E. Rutstrom, “Identifying Time Preferences With Experiments: Comment,” Unpublished Manuscript, 2012spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationMelonie B. Williams, “Estimating Individual Discount Rates in Denmark: A Field Experiment,” American Economic Review, 2002, 92 (5), 1606–1617spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationHausman, Jerry A., “Individual Discount Rates and the Purchase and Utilization of EnergyUsing Durables,” The Bell Journal of Economics, 1979, 10 (1), 33–54spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationHolt, Charles A. and Susan K. Laury, “Risk Aversion and Incentive E↵ects,” American Economic Review, 2002, 92 (5), 1644–1655spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationImai, Taisuke, Tom A. Rutter, and Colin F. Camerer, “Meta-Analysis of Present-Bias Estimation using Convex Time Budgets,” Working Paper, 2019spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationKoopmans, Tjalling C., “Stationary Ordinal Utility and Impatience,” Econometrica, 1960, 28 (2), 287–309spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationKramer, Berber, Wendy Janssens, and Lisette Swart, “Time Inconsistent Behavior Under Incomplete Markets: Results from a Field Experiment in Nigeria,” Conference Paper, Presented at 11th Midwest International Economic Development Conference. May 2-3, 2014. University of Minnesota, St. Paul MN, 2013spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationLaibson, David, “Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997, 112 (2), 443–478spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationAndrea Repetto, and Jeremy Tobacman, “Estimating Discount Functions with Consumption Choices Over the Lifecycle,” NBER Working Paper No. 13314, 2007spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationLawrance, Emily C., “Poverty and the Rate of Time Preference: Evidence from Panel Data,” Journal of Political Economy, 1991, 99 (1), 54–77spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationMahajan, Aprajit and Alessandro Tarozzi, “Time Inconsistency, Ecpectations and Technology Adoption: The Case of Insecticide Treated Nets,” Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 105, 2011spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationMartinez, Seung-Keun, Stephan Meier, and Charles Sprenger, “Procrastination in the Field: Evidence from Tax Filing,” Working Paper, Columbia Business School, 2017spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationMeier, Stephan and Charles Sprenger, “Present-Biased Preferences and Credit Card Borrowing,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2010, 2 (1), 193–210spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationTime Discounting Predicts Creditworthiness,” Psychological Science, 2012, 23 (1), 56–58spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitation“Temporal Stability of Time Preferences,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2015, 97 (2), 273–286spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationO’Donoghue, Ted and Matthew Rabin, “Choice and Procrastination,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2001, 116 (1), 121–160spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationRead, Daniel, George Loewenstein, Matthew Rabin, Gideon Keren, and David Laibson, “Choice bracketing,” in Baruch Fischho↵ and Charles F. Manski, eds., Elicitation of preferences, Springer, 1999, pp. 171–202spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationSamuelson, Paul A., “A Note on Measurement of Utility,” The Review of Economic Studies, 1937, 4 (2), 155–161spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationSawada, Yasuyuki and Yusuke Kuroishi, “How does a natural disaster a↵ect peoples preference? The case of a large scale flood in the Philippines using the convex time budget experiments,” in Yasuyuki Sawada and Yusuke Kuroishi, eds., Disaster Risks, Social Preferences, and Policy E↵ects: Field Experiments in Selected ASEAN and East Asian Coutries, ERIA Research Project Report 2013-34, 2015, pp. 57–84spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationSprenger, Charles, “Judging Experimental Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency,” American Economic Review, 2015, 105 (5), 280–285spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationStone, Richard, “Linear Expenditure Systems and Demand Analysis: An Application to the Pattern of British Demand,” Economic Journal, 1954, 64 (255), 511–527spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationThaler, Richard H., “Mental Accounting Matters,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1999, 12 (3), 183–206spa
dc.source.bibliographicCitationWarner, John and Saul Pleeter, “The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs,” American Economic Review, 2001, 91 (1), 33–53spa
dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURspa
dc.subjectEstimación estructuralspa
dc.subjectPresupuesto de tiempo convexospa
dc.subjectPredicción fuera de muestraspa
dc.subject.ddcEconomía financieraspa
dc.subject.keywordStructural estimationspa
dc.subject.keywordConvex Time Budgetspa
dc.subject.keywordOut-of-sample predictionspa
dc.titleIntertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behaviorspa
dc.type.spaDocumento de trabajospa
Bloque original
Mostrando1 - 2 de 2
221 B
Hypertext Markup Language
1.2 MB
Adobe Portable Document Format
Bloque de licencias
Mostrando1 - 1 de 1
1.44 KB
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission