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Assessing changes in global fire regimes

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dc.creatorHantson, Stijn Erik Rspa
dc.creatorSayedi, Sayedeh Saraspa
dc.creatorAbbott, Benjamin W.spa
dc.creatorBérangère Leys, Boris Vannièrespa
dc.creatorColombaroli, Danielespa
dc.creatorGil Romera, Gracielaspa
dc.creatorSlowinski, Michalspa
dc.creatorAleman, Julie C.spa
dc.creatorBlarquez, Olivierspa
dc.creatorFeurdean, Angelicaspa
dc.creatorBrown, Kendrickspa
dc.creatorAakala, Tuomasspa
dc.creatorTeija, Aleniusspa
dc.creatorAllen, Kathrynspa
dc.creatorAndric, Majaspa
dc.creatorBergeron, Yvesspa
dc.creatorSiria Biagioni, Richard Bradshawspa
dc.creatorBremond, Laurentspa
dc.creatorBrisset, Elodiespa
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-26T18:38:36Z
dc.date.available2025-01-26T18:38:36Z
dc.date.created2024-12-01spa
dc.date.issued2024-12-01spa
dc.descriptionBackground: The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results: Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion: The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.spa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00237-9spa
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/44855
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherFire Ecologyspa
dc.relation.ispartofFire Ecologyspa
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalspa
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessspa
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/spa
dc.sourceFire Ecologyspa
dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURspa
dc.subjectBiomespa
dc.subjectClimate changespa
dc.subjectEcosystem servicesspa
dc.subjectExpert assessmentspa
dc.subjectFire regimespa
dc.subjectHolocenespa
dc.subjectManagementspa
dc.titleAssessing changes in global fire regimesspa
dc.typearticlespa
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionspa
dc.type.spaArtículospa
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