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More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia

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dc.contributor.gruplacGrupo de Investigaciones. Facultad de Economía. Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.creatorMoreno, Laura E.
dc.creatorGallego Durán, Jorge Andrés
dc.creatorVargas Duque, Juan Fernando
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-08T19:16:32Z
dc.date.available2020-05-08T19:16:32Z
dc.date.created2020-05-07
dc.descriptionEste documento estima el impacto de las carreteras rurales en los conflictos armados y los cultivos ilícitos en Colombia durante un período de catorce años de rápido crecimiento de las inversiones en carreteras. Estimamos el impacto causal de estas intervenciones utilizando microdatos de los ingresos por regalías para el sector del transporte a nivel municipal e implementamos una estrategia de Diferencia en Diferencias con adopción escalonada. Los resultados muestran que los nuevos caminos rurales, en particular los pequeños proyectos conocidos como placa-huella, tienen un efecto causal positivo en los conflictos armados y en los cultivos de coca. Estos efectos no deseados de la provisión de carreteras se deben principalmente a la intensificación de la violencia en los municipios más ricos. En estos lugares, encontramos que la nueva conectividad conduce a un aumento en la producción de cultivos legales. Por lo tanto, los municipios más ricos son más atractivos para los grupos armados y más vulnerables a los ataques que buscan expropiar estas nuevas rentas. Además, el contexto institucional parece ser determinante en el signo del efecto: en municipios con instituciones calificadas y estables, la provisión de carreteras mitiga el desarrollo de actividades ilegales. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de proporcionar bienes públicos en paralelo con el fortalecimiento de la capacidad del estado local a través de instituciones confiables.spa
dc.description.abstractThis paper estimates the impact of rural roads on armed conflict and illicit crops in Colombia over a fourteen year period of rapid growth of road investments. We estimate the causal impact of these interventions using micro-data of the royalties revenues to the transport sector at the municipal level, and implement a strategy of Difference-in-Differences with staggered adoption. The results show that new rural roads, in particular small projects known as placa-huella, have a positive causal effect on armed conflict and on coca crops. These unintended effects of road provision are mainly driven by the intensification of violence in wealthier municipalities. In these places, we find that the new connectivity leads to an increase in the production of legal crops. Hence, wealthier municipalities are more attractive to armed groups and more vulnerable to attacks that seek to expropriate these new rents. In addition, the institutional background seems to be determinant in the sign of the effect: in municipalities with qualified and stable institutions, road provision mitigates the development of illegal activity. These results highlight the importance of providing public goods in parallel with strengthening the local state capacity through reliable institutions.spa
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dc.identifier.citationMoreno, Laura E.; Gallego, Jorge A.; Vargas, Juan F. (2020) More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia. Universidad del Rosario, Department of Economics, Documentos de trabajo economía. 48 pp.spa
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.48713/10336_21920
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/21920
dc.language.isospa
dc.relation.citationTitleSerie Documentos de trabajo. Economía
dc.relation.urihttps://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000092/018154.html
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombiaspa
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/co/
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dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURspa
dc.subjectCarreterasspa
dc.subjectBienes públicosspa
dc.subjectConflicto armadospa
dc.subjectEconomías ilegalesspa
dc.subjectRegalíasspa
dc.subject.ddcEconomía de la tierraspa
dc.subject.ddcProblemas sociales & bienestar social en generalspa
dc.subject.jelH41spa
dc.subject.jelH54spa
dc.subject.jelO12spa
dc.subject.jelD2spa
dc.subject.jelD74spa
dc.subject.jelO11spa
dc.subject.jelO4spa
dc.subject.jelR4spa
dc.subject.keywordRoadsspa
dc.subject.keywordPublic Goodsspa
dc.subject.keywordArmed Conflictspa
dc.subject.keywordIllegal Economiesspa
dc.subject.keywordRoyaltiesspa
dc.titleMore roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombiaspa
dc.typeworkingPapereng
dc.type.spaDocumento de trabajospa
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