Ítem
Acceso Abierto
Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior
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Autores
Aycinena, Diego
Blazsek, Szabolcs
Rentschler, Lucas
Sprenger, Charles
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Fecha
2019-12-01
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Editor
Universidad del Rosario
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Resumen
Intertemporal choice experiments are frequently implemented to make inference about time preferences, yet little is known about the predictive power of resulting measures. This project links standard experimental choices to a decision on the desire to smooth a large-stakes payment — around 10% of annual income — through time. In a sample of around 400 Guatemalan Conditional Cash Transfer recipients, we find that preferences over large-stakes payment plans are closely predicted by experimental measures of patience and diminishing marginal utility. These represent the first findings in the literature on the predictive content of experimentally elicited intertemporal preferences for large-stakes decisions.
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Keywords
Structural estimation , Out-of-sample prediction , Discounting , Convex Time Budget
