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Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes

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dc.creatorClerici, Nicolaspa
dc.creatorCote-Navarro F.spa
dc.creatorEscobedo F.J.spa
dc.creatorRubiano K.spa
dc.creatorVillegas J.C.spa
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-26T00:00:48Z
dc.date.available2020-05-26T00:00:48Z
dc.date.created2019spa
dc.description.abstractClimate change can have marked effects on ecosystem service (ES) provision in the Andes, particularly in peri-urban areas. In addition to global-change related processes, cumulative effects such as changing socio-political dynamics, environmental policies, and conflicts are also changing type and magnitude of land use–land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Colombian Andes. Studies in the region have investigated the effects of LULC change, deforestation and extreme climatic events on the hydrology of watersheds and carbon sequestration. Yet, less is known on how the cumulative effects of climate and LULC changes will drive water yield and carbon sequestration. To investigate these cumulative effects, we study two different watersheds near Bogota, Colombia and their ES for the period 2016–2046. We use IPCC-LULC scenarios, expert elicitation, hydro-meteorological data, and integrated modelling using temporal LULC change and ESs valuation models to parse out effects of LULC versus climate change on two representative ESs. Our results show forest and shrublands remain stable during the analysis period. However, urban conversion of agricultural pastures is substantial. We found that climate change scenarios had greater effect on water yield and supply than LULC scenarios in both watersheds. However, carbon sequestration was greater in rural forest and shrubland areas farther from Bogota. In contrast to current land use zoning being promoted by local elected officials, our findings indicate that land-use development and policies in near-urban basins need to minimize urbanization in agriculture and pasture LULCs, as these can have substantial effects on water yield. Similarly, land use polices in ex-urban areas need to conserve forested and shrubland areas to maximize their carbon offset potential. Collectively, our results highlight the need to incorporate climate change conditions in decision making and land use planning processes, in order to maintain the capacity of ecosystems, both urban and rural, to provide services to society. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.eng
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.275
dc.identifier.issn489697
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23274
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.spa
dc.relation.citationEndPage1192
dc.relation.citationStartPage1181
dc.relation.citationTitleScience of the Total Environment
dc.relation.citationVolumeVol. 685
dc.relation.ispartofScience of the Total Environment, ISSN:489697, Vol.685,(2019); pp. 1181-1192spa
dc.relation.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85067890552&doi=10.1016%2fj.scitotenv.2019.06.275&partnerID=40&md5=93004fbda5cf512ee6c53962a2659570spa
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURspa
dc.subject.keywordCarbonspa
dc.subject.keywordClimate modelsspa
dc.subject.keywordDecision makingspa
dc.subject.keywordDeforestationspa
dc.subject.keywordDigital storagespa
dc.subject.keywordEcosystemsspa
dc.subject.keywordEnvironmental protectionspa
dc.subject.keywordLand usespa
dc.subject.keywordRural areasspa
dc.subject.keywordUrban planningspa
dc.subject.keywordWatershedsspa
dc.subject.keywordBogotaspa
dc.subject.keywordCarbon poolspa
dc.subject.keywordColombiaspa
dc.subject.keywordDyna-CLUEspa
dc.subject.keywordInvestspa
dc.subject.keywordScenariosspa
dc.subject.keywordWater provisionspa
dc.subject.keywordClimate changespa
dc.subject.keywordCarbon sequestrationspa
dc.subject.keywordClimate changespa
dc.subject.keywordEcosystem servicespa
dc.subject.keywordHydrometeorologyspa
dc.subject.keywordLand coverspa
dc.subject.keywordLand use changespa
dc.subject.keywordSpatiotemporal analysisspa
dc.subject.keywordWatershedspa
dc.subject.keywordAgricultural landspa
dc.subject.keywordArticlespa
dc.subject.keywordCarbon sequestrationspa
dc.subject.keywordClimate changespa
dc.subject.keywordColombiaspa
dc.subject.keywordEnvironmental managementspa
dc.subject.keywordEnvironmental planningspa
dc.subject.keywordEnvironmental sustainabilityspa
dc.subject.keywordForestspa
dc.subject.keywordHydrologyspa
dc.subject.keywordLand usespa
dc.subject.keywordMeteorologyspa
dc.subject.keywordPasturespa
dc.subject.keywordPriority journalspa
dc.subject.keywordRural areaspa
dc.subject.keywordScrubspa
dc.subject.keywordUrbanizationspa
dc.subject.keywordWater managementspa
dc.subject.keywordWatershedspa
dc.subject.keywordAndesspa
dc.subject.keywordBogotaspa
dc.subject.keywordColombiaspa
dc.subject.keywordBogotaspa
dc.subject.keywordCarbon poolspa
dc.subject.keywordColombiaspa
dc.subject.keywordDyna-CLUEspa
dc.subject.keywordInvestspa
dc.subject.keywordScenariosspa
dc.subject.keywordWater provisionspa
dc.titleSpatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andesspa
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.spaArtículospa
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