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Two-way Interactions between Hydroclimate and Forest Vegetation Disturbances in Colombia

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dc.contributor.advisorQuesada, Benjamín Raphael
dc.contributor.advisorClerici, Nicola
dc.contributor.gruplacInteracciones Clima-Ecosistemas (ICE)
dc.creatorCárdenas Vélez, Mario Esteban
dc.creator.degreeMagíster en Ciencias Naturales
dc.creator.degreeLevelMaestríaspa
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-01T14:26:53Z
dc.date.available2025-07-01T14:26:53Z
dc.date.created2025-06-09
dc.date.embargoEndinfo:eu-repo/date/embargoEnd/2027-07-02
dc.descriptionEste estudio investiga las relaciones causales bidireccionales y no lineales entre la dinámica de la vegetación y siete variables hidroclimáticas - temperatura del punto de rocío a 2 metros (d2m), evaporación (e), evapotranspiración potencial (pev), albedo pronosticado (fal), precipitación total (tp), temperatura del aire a 2 metros (t2m) y escorrentía (ro) - a través de ecosistemas forestales tropicales en Colombia bajo diferentes niveles de perturbación forestal. Mediante el empleo de un enfoque de conjunto que integra la causalidad de Granger no lineal con la importancia de las características del bosque aleatorio, cuantificamos la magnitud, la fuerza y los desfases temporales de las relaciones causales en 24 biomas. Las variables hidroclimáticas ejercen, en promedio, efectos causales 3,6 veces más fuertes sobre el NDVI que el NDVI sobre el hidroclima, principalmente a través de la regulación térmica. La retroalimentación del NDVI sobre el hidroclima fue menor y estuvo vinculada principalmente a variables relacionadas con el agua, como la evapotranspiración y la escorrentía. Los impactos hidroclimáticos sobre el NDVI fueron en gran medida negativos, particularmente para ro, tp y pev (magnitud media ≈ -28%), indicando un potencial estrés de la vegetación bajo flujos de agua crecientes. Por el contrario, t2m mostró una influencia consistentemente positiva (≈ +19%), sugiriendo una mayor actividad fotosintética bajo un calentamiento moderado. Surgieron patrones específicos de cada bioma: t2m tuvo la influencia más significativa sobre el NDVI en los Bosques Tropicales Húmedos (≈ +0,93 frente a la evaporación), mientras que la evaporación dominó en los Bosques Tropicales Secos (≈ +60,1 frente a d2m). Las alteraciones forestales influyeron en la causalidad más que el tipo de bioma: los bosques no alterados fueron más sensibles al estrés hidrológico (por ejemplo, tp = -8%), mientras que los bosques degradados se vieron más afectados por el estrés térmico (por ejemplo, t2m = -10%). Una sincronía de moderada a fuerte entre la vegetación y la dinámica hidroclimática de (ρ ≈ 0,54-0,62) indica la existencia de factores atmosféricos a escala regional. Estos datos mejoran la comprensión de la retroalimentación ecosistema-clima, con implicaciones para la conservación de los bosques y la adaptación al clima en las regiones tropicales.
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates bidirectional, non-linear causal relationships between vegetation dynamics and seven hydroclimatic variables—2-meter dew point temperature (d2m), evaporation (e), potential evapotranspiration (pev), forecast albedo (fal), total precipitation (tp), 2-meter air temperature (t2m), and runoff (ro)—across tropical forest ecosystems in Colombia under varying levels of forest disturbance. By employing an ensemble approach that integrates non-linear Granger causality with Random Forest feature importance, we quantified the magnitude, strength, and time lags of the causal relationships across 24 biomes. Hydroclimatic variables exert, on average, 3.6 times stronger causal effects on NDVI than NDVI exerts on hydroclimate, primarily through thermal regulation. NDVI’s feedback on hydroclimate was fewer and mostly linked to water-related variables like evapotranspiration and runoff. Hydroclimatic impacts on NDVI were largely negative, particularly for ro, tp, and pev (average magnitude ≈ -28%), indicating potential vegetation stress under increased water fluxes. Conversely, t2m showed a consistently positive influence (≈ +19%), suggesting enhanced photosynthetic activity under moderate warming. Biome-specific patterns emerged: t2m had the most significant influence on NDVI in Tropical Moist Forests (≈ +0.93 vs. evaporation), whereas evaporation dominated in Tropical Dry Forests (≈ +60.1 vs. d2m). Forest disturbance influenced causality more strongly than biome type: undisturbed forests were more sensitive to hydrological stress (e.g., tp = –8%), whereas degraded forests were more affected by thermal stress (e.g., t2m = –10%). A moderate-to-strong synchrony between vegetation and hydroclimate dynamics (ρ ≈ 0.54–0.62) indicates regional-scale atmospheric drivers. These insights enhance understanding of ecosystem–climate feedback, with implications for forest conservation and climate adaptation in tropical regions.
dc.format.extent42 pp
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.48713/10336_45778
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/45778
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherUniversidad del Rosario
dc.publisher.departmentEscuela de Ciencias e Ingeniería
dc.publisher.programMaestría en Ciencias Naturales
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International*
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dc.rights.accesoRestringido (Temporalmente bloqueado)
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
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dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR
dc.subjectCausalidad
dc.subjectNDVI
dc.subjectHidroclima
dc.subjectPerturbación forestal en Colombia
dc.subjectAprendizaje automático
dc.subjectRandom Forest
dc.subjectCausalidad de Granger
dc.subject.keywordCausality
dc.subject.keywordNDVI
dc.subject.keywordHydroclimate
dc.subject.keywordForest disturbance in Colombia
dc.subject.keywordMachine learning
dc.subject.keywordRandom Forest
dc.subject.keywordGranger causality
dc.titleTwo-way Interactions between Hydroclimate and Forest Vegetation Disturbances in Colombia
dc.title.alternativeInteracciones bidireccionales entre el hidroclima y las alteraciones de la vegetación forestal en Colombia
dc.typemasterThesis
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.type.spaTesis de maestría
local.department.reportEscuela de Ciencias e Ingeniería
local.regionesBogotá
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