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Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century

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dc.creatorSy, Souleymanespa
dc.creatorQuesada, Benjamín Raphael
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-26T00:06:59Z
dc.date.available2020-05-26T00:06:59Z
dc.date.created2020spa
dc.description.abstractAnthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following modelling over the historical period (often based on a single model), regional or idealized studies. Here, using simulations performed with five earth system models under common future global LCC scenarios (the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways) and analyzing 20 extreme weather indices, we find future LCC substantially modulates projected weather extremes. On average by the end of the 21st century, under RCP8.5, future LCC robustly lessens global projections of high rainfall extremes by 22% for heavy precipitation days (>10 mm) and by 16% for total precipitation amount of wet days (PRCPTOT). Accounting for LCC diminishes their regional projections by >50% (70%) in southern Africa (northeastern Brazil) but intensifies projected dry days in eastern Africa by 29%. LCC does not substantially affect projections of global and regional temperature extremes ( less than 5%), but it can impact global rainfall extremes 2.5 times more than global mean rainfall projections. Under an RCP2.6 scenario, global LCC impacts are similar but of lesser magnitude, while at regional scale in Amazon or Asia, LCC enhances drought projections. We stress here that multi-coupled modelling frameworks incorporating all aspects of land use are needed for reliable projections of extreme events. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.eng
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c
dc.identifier.issn17489326
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherInstitute of Physics Publishingspa
dc.relation.citationIssueNo. 3
dc.relation.citationTitleEnvironmental Research Letters
dc.relation.citationVolumeVol. 15
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Research Letters, ISSN:17489326, Vol.15, No.3 (2020)spa
dc.relation.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85082649050&doi=10.1088%2f1748-9326%2fab702c&partnerID=40&md5=48d3dc24ee885e8e3bde2c79aead1f2espa
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURspa
dc.subject.keywordClimate changespa
dc.subject.keywordDeforestationspa
dc.subject.keywordElectric power system interconnectionspa
dc.subject.keywordLand usespa
dc.subject.keywordRainspa
dc.subject.keywordAttributionspa
dc.subject.keywordExtreme weather eventsspa
dc.subject.keywordHeavy precipitationspa
dc.subject.keywordModel inter comparisonsspa
dc.subject.keywordNortheastern Brazilspa
dc.subject.keywordRainfall extremesspa
dc.subject.keywordTemperature extremesspa
dc.subject.keywordTotal precipitationspa
dc.subject.keywordExtreme weatherspa
dc.subject.keywordAnthropogenic effectspa
dc.subject.keywordClimate modelingspa
dc.subject.keywordDeforestationspa
dc.subject.keywordDroughtspa
dc.subject.keywordExtreme eventspa
dc.subject.keywordLand coverspa
dc.subject.keywordLand usespa
dc.subject.keywordRainfallspa
dc.subject.keywordTwenty first centuryspa
dc.subject.keywordAfricaspa
dc.subject.keywordAmazoniaspa
dc.subject.keywordAsiaspa
dc.subject.keywordBrazilspa
dc.subject.keywordAttributionspa
dc.subject.keywordDeforestationspa
dc.subject.keywordModel intercomparisonspa
dc.subject.keywordRainfall extremesspa
dc.subject.keywordTemperature extremesspa
dc.titleAnthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st centuryspa
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.spaArtículospa
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