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Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

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dc.creatorKrause, A.spa
dc.creatorHaverd, V.spa
dc.creatorPoulter, B.spa
dc.creatorAnthoni, P.spa
dc.creatorQuesada, Benjamín Raphaelspa
dc.creatorRammig, A.spa
dc.creatorArneth, A.spa
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-26T00:06:17Z
dc.date.available2020-05-26T00:06:17Z
dc.date.created2019spa
dc.description.abstractLand use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to ?0.021 ± 0.007 and ?0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered. © 2019. The Authors.eng
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23873
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherJohn Wiley and Sons Incspa
dc.relation.citationEndPage851
dc.relation.citationIssueNo. 7
dc.relation.citationStartPage833
dc.relation.citationTitleEarth`s Future
dc.relation.citationVolumeVol. 7
dc.relation.ispartofEarth's Future, Vol.7, No.7 (2019); pp. 833-851spa
dc.relation.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85070432842&doi=10.1029%2f2018EF001123&partnerID=40&md5=d2b8e12430f234b82148ee2162559d4dspa
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosariospa
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURspa
dc.subject.keywordClimate changespa
dc.subject.keywordEcological modelingspa
dc.subject.keywordEcosystem functionspa
dc.subject.keywordEcosystem servicespa
dc.subject.keywordEnvironmental indicatorspa
dc.subject.keywordEvapotranspirationspa
dc.subject.keywordFuture prospectspa
dc.subject.keywordLand use changespa
dc.subject.keywordTerrestrial ecosystemspa
dc.subject.keywordClimate change projectionsspa
dc.subject.keywordEcosystem service indicatorsspa
dc.subject.keywordLand use changespa
dc.subject.keywordLegacy effectsspa
dc.subject.keywordTerrestrial ecosystemsspa
dc.subject.keywordVegetation modelingspa
dc.titleMultimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioningspa
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.spaArtículospa
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