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PPP, UIP and Fisher parity: speculation or rational expectations? Evidence for four Latin American countries


Otero Cardona, Jesús Gilberto

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Universidad del Rosario

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This work aims to test the equilibrium relations of two international macroeconomics models for Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Brazil. The first model is the rational expectation hypothesis (REH) where three key relations will be tested: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and the Fisher Parity condition. The second model follows the line of thought of Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) where two equilibrium relations will be tested. According to IKE, even under the assumption that agents are rational, the presence of speculative behavior in financial markets helps explain the long swings often observed in the behavior of exchange rates. The results support the view that the predictions of the IKE model hold for Colombia, while those of the REH hold for both Brazil and Mexico. Mixed findings are obtained for Chile.
Palabras clave
Cambios largos , Conocimiento imperfecto , Mercados de divisas
Long Swings , Imperfect Knowledge , CVAR , Currency markets
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