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Essays on equity research and informational decisions

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dc.contributor.advisorFlorez-Acosta, Jorge
dc.contributor.advisorGómez Portilla, Karoll
dc.creatorAstaiza-Gómez, José Gabriel
dc.creator.degreeDoctor en Economíaspa
dc.creator.degreetypeFull timespa
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-22T20:14:24Z
dc.date.available2021-06-22T20:14:24Z
dc.date.created2021-06-15
dc.descriptionEstudio empíricamente cómo funciona el sesgo confirmatorio para señales fuertes y contradictorias utilizando datos de analistas del lado de la venta. Primero modelé un agente que es propenso al sesgo confirmatorio y cuya tarea es valorar un stock basado en una señal, e introduzco los efectos de la fuerza de la señal relajando la suposición de Rabin y Schrag (1999) de una severidad de sesgo constante. Posteriormente, utilizo los precios objetivo para medir el sesgo de pronóstico y el crecimiento de las ganancias por acción como señales, y retrocedo el sesgo de pronóstico de los analistas sobre diferentes deciles de señales favorables interactuadas con el sesgo de pronóstico negativo previo en un modelo de datos de panel dinámico. Encuentro que los analistas no reaccionan positivamente a las señales favorables cuando el anterior es pesimista, excepto por señales suficientemente fuertes que hacen que los analistas emitan precios objetivo más optimistas.spa
dc.description.abstractI empirically study how confirmatory bias works for strong and contradictory signals using data on sell-side analysts. I first model an agent who is prone to confirmatory bias and whose task is to value a stock based on a signal, and introduce the effects of the signal strength by relaxing Rabin and Schrag's (1999) assumption of a constant bias severity. Afterwards I use target prices to measure forecast bias and the growth in Earnings Per Share as signals, and regress analysts' forecast bias over different deciles of favorable signals interacted with prior negative forecast bias in a dynamic panel data model. I find that analysts do not react positively to favorable signals when the prior is pessimistic, except for suffciently strong signals which cause analysts to issue more optimistic target prices.spa
dc.description.sponsorshipColcienciasspa
dc.format.extent104 pp.spa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.48713/10336_31670
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/31670
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherUniversidad del Rosariospa
dc.publisher.departmentFacultad de Economíaspa
dc.publisher.programDoctorado en Economíaspa
dc.rights.accesRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.accesoAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.rights.licenciaEL AUTOR, manifiesta que la obra objeto de la presente autorización es original y la realizó sin violar o usurpar derechos de autor de terceros, por lo tanto la obra es de exclusiva autoría y tiene la titularidad sobre la misma. PARGRAFO: En caso de presentarse cualquier reclamación o acción por parte de un tercero en cuanto a los derechos de autor sobre la obra en cuestión, EL AUTOR, asumirá toda la responsabilidad, y saldrá en defensa de los derechos aquí autorizados; para todos los efectos la universidad actúa como un tercero de buena fe. EL AUTOR, autoriza a LA UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, para que en los términos establecidos en la Ley 23 de 1982, Ley 44 de 1993, Decisión andina 351 de 1993, Decreto 460 de 1995 y demás normas generales sobre la materia, utilice y use la obra objeto de la presente autorización. -------------------------------------- POLITICA DE TRATAMIENTO DE DATOS PERSONALES. Declaro que autorizo previa y de forma informada el tratamiento de mis datos personales por parte de LA UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO para fines académicos y en aplicación de convenios con terceros o servicios conexos con actividades propias de la academia, con estricto cumplimiento de los principios de ley. Para el correcto ejercicio de mi derecho de habeas data cuento con la cuenta de correo habeasdata@urosario.edu.co, donde previa identificación podré solicitar la consulta, corrección y supresión de mis datos.spa
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dc.source.instnameinstname:Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR
dc.subjectActualización bayesianaspa
dc.subjectMala interpretaciónspa
dc.subjectA priori pesimistaspa
dc.subjectPronóstico optimistaspa
dc.subjectIncentivos comercialesspa
dc.subjectCredibilidad del analistaspa
dc.subjectInversores receptivosspa
dc.subjectInversores ingenuosspa
dc.subjectParámetros aleatoriosspa
dc.subjectServicios de acceso abiertospa
dc.subjectProveedores de suscripciónspa
dc.subjectCuotas de mercadospa
dc.subject.ddcEconomíaspa
dc.subject.keywordBayesian updatingspa
dc.subject.keywordMisinterpretationspa
dc.subject.keywordPessimistic priorspa
dc.subject.keywordOptimistic forecastspa
dc.subject.keywordTrading incentivesspa
dc.subject.keywordAnalyst's credibilityspa
dc.subject.keywordResponsive investorsspa
dc.subject.keywordNaive investorsspa
dc.subject.keywordRandom parametersspa
dc.subject.keywordOpen access servicesspa
dc.subject.keywordSubscription providersspa
dc.subject.keywordMarket sharesspa
dc.titleEssays on equity research and informational decisionsspa
dc.title.TranslatedTitleEnsayos sobre valoración de acciones y decisiones informativasspa
dc.typedoctoralThesiseng
dc.type.documentTesisspa
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.type.spaTesis de doctoradospa
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Doctorado en Economía