Ítem
Acceso Abierto
Umbral de deuda pública y crecimiento: el caso colombiano
| dc.contributor.advisor | Valencia, Oscar Mauricio | |
| dc.creator | Sánchez Rivera, Gustavo Adolfo | |
| dc.creator.degree | Magíster en Economía | es |
| dc.creator.degreeLevel | Maestría | |
| dc.creator.degreetype | Full time | es |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-05-06T19:44:28Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-05-06T19:44:28Z | |
| dc.date.created | 2022-04-07 | |
| dc.description | Ante la crisis de COVID-19 muchos países suspendieron sus reglas fiscales y aumentaron los niveles de deuda. Una nueva normalidad en la postpandemia y la necesidad de recuperar la confianza de los inversionistas en las economías emergentes genera la urgencia de discutir cómo poner nuevamente en funcionamiento las reglas fiscales y recalibrarlas o rediseñarlas. Algunas propuestas resaltan la necesidad de anclar las reglas a un nivel de deuda que no genere efectos negativos en la economía. Esta investigación aporta a esta discusión estimando el umbral de deuda particular para una economía emergente y el efecto no lineal en el crecimiento económico de altos niveles de endeudamiento, teniendo en cuenta la dinámica, cointegración y endogeneidad de las series. Se implementan modelos TVEC y MS-ARDL tomando como caso de estudio a la economía colombiana. Las aproximaciones implementadas estiman de forma consistente y robusta el umbral de deuda-PIB entre 40\% y 48\% del PIB, en donde cada 10 puntos porcentuales por encima de este nivel reducen el crecimiento en 0.5 puntos porcentuales, en el mejor de los casos. | es |
| dc.description.abstract | In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, many countries suspended their fiscal rules and increased debt levels. A new post pandemic normality and the need to regain investor confidence in emerging economies creates an urgency to discuss how to put fiscal rules back in place and recalibrate or redesign them. Some proposals highlight the need to anchor the rules to a level of debt that does not generate negative effects on the economy. This research contributes to this discussion by estimating the particular debt threshold and the non-linear effect on economic growth of high debt levels for an emerging economy, taking into account the dynamics, cointegration and endogeneity of the series. TVEC and MS-ARDL models are implemented taking the Colombian economy as a case study. The approximations implemented consistently and robustly estimate the debt-to-GDP threshold between 40 and 48% of GDP, where for each 10 percentage points above this level growth is reduced by 0.5 percentage points, in the best case. | es |
| dc.format.extent | 30 pp | es |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | es |
| dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.48713/10336_34137 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/34137 | |
| dc.language.iso | spa | es |
| dc.publisher | Universidad del Rosario | spa |
| dc.publisher.department | Facultad de Economía | spa |
| dc.publisher.program | Maestría en Economía | spa |
| dc.publisher.program | Maestría en Economía de las Políticas Públicas | |
| dc.rights | Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 2.5 Colombia | * |
| dc.rights.accesRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es |
| dc.rights.acceso | Abierto (Texto Completo) | es |
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| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/co/ | * |
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| dc.source.instname | instname:Universidad del Rosario | |
| dc.source.reponame | reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR | |
| dc.subject | Deuda Pública | es |
| dc.subject | Crecimiento Económico | es |
| dc.subject | Umbrales | es |
| dc.subject | Cointegración | es |
| dc.subject.ddc | Economía | es |
| dc.subject.keyword | Public Debt | es |
| dc.subject.keyword | Economic Growth | es |
| dc.subject.keyword | Thresholds | es |
| dc.subject.keyword | Cointegration | es |
| dc.title | Umbral de deuda pública y crecimiento: el caso colombiano | es |
| dc.title.TranslatedTitle | Public Debt Threshold and Growth: The Colombian Case | es |
| dc.type | masterThesis | eng |
| dc.type.document | Tesis | es |
| dc.type.hasVersion | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion | |
| dc.type.spa | Tesis de maestría | spa |
