Documentos de trabajo economía

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    A DSGE model with loss aversion in consumption and leisure: an explanation for business cycles asymmetries
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2014) Gómez Muñoz, Wilman Arturo
    In this chapter, an asymmetric DSGE model is built in order to account for asymmetries in business cycles. One of the most important contributions of this work is the construction of a general utility function which nests loss aversion, risk aversion and habits formation by means of a smooth transition function. The main idea behind this asymmetric utility function is that under recession the agents over-smooth consumption and leisure choices in order to prevent a huge deviation of them from the reference level of the utility; while under boom, the agents simply smooth consumption and leisure, but trying to be as far as possible from the reference level of utility. The simulations of this model by means of Perturbations Method show that it is possible to reproduce asymmetrical business cycles where recession (on shock) are stronger than booms and booms are more long-lasting than recession. One additional and unexpected result is a downward stickiness displayed by real wages. As a consequence of this, there is a more persistent fall in employment in recession than in boom. Thus, the model reproduces not only asymmetrical business cycles but also real stickiness and hysteresis.
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    A firm-level analysis of ICT adoption in an emerging economy: evidence from the colombian manufacturing industries
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2011) Gallego Acevedo, Juan Miguel; Gutiérrez Ramírez, Luis Hernando; Sang, Lee
    This study examines ICT adoption among 3,759 Colombian manufacturing firms, and attempts to identify the factors that are conducive to the adoption and usage of ICT at the firm level. Our major findings are (i) that the adoption of a given information and communication technology is better facilitated when a firm is relatively large, has large human capital, engages in more innovative activities, and when a firm’s organizational structure is better aligned with the given technology; (ii) that positive associations between the key determinants and ICT adoptions are more pronounced for small and medium-sized firms than for large ones, and (iii) that information spillovers within industries is also a determinant of ICT adoptions by the firms.
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    A model of school behavior: tuition fees and grading standards
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2008) Maldonado, Dario
    This paper uses a hybrid human capital / signaling model to study grading standards in schools when tuition fees are allowed. The paper analyzes the grading standard set by a profit maximizing school and compares it with the efficient one. The paper also studies grading standards when tuition fees have limits. When fees are regulated a profit maximizing school will set lower grading standards than when they are not regulated. Credit constraints of families also induce schools to lower their standards. Given that in the model presented competition is not feasible, these results show the importance of regulation of grading standards.
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    A Network model of systemic risk : identifying the sources of dependence across institutions
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2012) Castro, Carlos; Ordóñez Herrera, Juan Sebastián
    We design a financial network model that explicitly incorporates linkages across institutions through a direct contagion channel, as well as an indirect common exposure channel. In particular, common exposure is setup so as to link the financial to the real sector. The model is calibrated to balance sheet data on the colombian financial sector. Results indicate that commercial banks are the most systemically important financial institutions in the system. Whereas government owned institutions are the most vulnerable institutions in the system.
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    ¿A quiénes afecta el desempleo? análisis de la tasa de incidencia en Colombia
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2008) Forero Ramírez, Nohora Yulieth; García Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Guataquí, Juan
    El análisis de la dimensión de riesgo en el estudio del desempleo, complementa el estudio de aspectos como su tipología, la importancia de la intermediación laboral o la vulnerabilidad de ciertos grupos. En este sentido, la tasa de incidencia representa un indicador compuesto que tiene en cuenta el volumen de desempleados y la persistencia en este estado mediante la incorporación de la duración media del desempleo. El análisis de la tasa de incidencia permite caracterizar de manera más completa a quienes tienen una mayor probabilidad de entrar en el desempleo o permanecer en esta situación. . Se encuentra que en Colombia existen diferencias significativas entre la tasa de desempleo y la tasa de incidencia, lo que implica que la situación del mercado de trabajo no sólo se explica por el efecto que los choques económicos tienen sobre la composición de la oferta y demanda de trabajo sino también por los fenómenos de duración en los diferentes estados laborales. Estos eventos se pueden considerar igualmente importantes para explicar la dinámica de corto y mediano plazo del mercado laboral.
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    ¿A quiénes afecta el desempleo? análisis de la tasa de incidencia en Colombia
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2008) Nohora, Forero R.; García Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Guataquí, Juan
    El análisis de la dimensión de riesgo en el estudio del desempleo, complementa el estudio de aspectos como su tipología, la importancia de la intermediación laboral o la vulnerabilidad de ciertos grupos. En este sentido, la tasa de incidencia representa un indicador compuesto que tiene en cuenta el volumen de desempleados y la persistencia en este estado mediante la incorporación de la duración media del desempleo. El análisis de la tasa de incidencia permite caracterizar de manera más completa a quienes tienen una mayor probabilidad de entrar en el desempleo o permanecer en esta situación. Se encuentra que en Colombia existen diferencias significativas entre la tasa de desempleo y la tasa de incidencia, lo que implica que la situación del mercado de trabajo no sólo se explica por el efecto que los choques económicos tienen sobre la composición de la oferta y demanda de trabajo sino también por los fenómenos de duración en los diferentes estados laborales. Estos eventos se pueden considerar igualmente importantes para explicar la dinámica de corto y mediano plazo del mercado laboral.
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    A segmented and observable Yield Curve
    (2019-11-01) Castro, Carlos; Peña, Juan Felipe; Rodriguez Revilla, Cristhian Andres; Grupo de Investigaciones. Facultad de Economía. Universidad del Rosario
    Siguiendo a Almeida et al. (2018) implementamos un modelo segmentado de Nelson-Siegel de tres factores para la estructura a plazos, utilizando precios diarios de los TES en pesos y la tasa interbancaria de referencia para Colombia. La estimación flexible de cada segmento de la curva (corto, medio y largo) proporciona una ventaja sobre el modelos clásico de Nelson y Siegel en el momento de realizar pronósticos dentro y fuera de la muestra. Un modelo segmentado basado en los datos directos de los bonos proporciona un aproximación mas cercana a las necesidades de los profesionales en la industria en términos de su capacidad para reproducir los precios del mercado y permitir choques locales en los diferentes segmentos de la curva de rendimientos.
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    A simple test of momentum in foreign exchange markets
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2011) García Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Gómez González, Juan Eduardo
    This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. We illustrate our methodology estimating a binary response model using information on local currency / US dollar exchange rates of eight emerging economies. After controlling for important variables a§ecting the behavior of exchange rates in the short-run, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; in other words, we Önd that exchange rate momentum is a common feature in this group of emerging economies, and thus foreign exchange traders participating in these markets are able to make excess returns by following technical analysis strategies. We Önd that the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention
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    A Theory of Armed Clientelism
    (2018) Gallego Durán, Jorge Andrés; Facultad de Economía
    Armed clientelism is a particular form of patronage in which politicians and non-state armed groups establish a symbiotic relationship where the former provides economic resources, judicial protection, or other benefits, while the latter provides political support and votes. In this paper a theory of armed clientelism is presented, which shows that when politicians establish illegal alliances with armed groups and mafias, they face a political tradeoff: illegal alliances augment the probability of being elected, but generate the risk of being removed from office. The model predicts that in a context in which a mafia controls a district or a town, armed clientelism is more likely when social diversity among the constituency is high, the judicial system is inefficient, party identification of citizens to clientelistic parties is low, and candidates are highly budget-constrained. It also shows that armed clientelism is more likely when the illegal group and the machine are ideologically aligned.
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    Academic achievement in sciences: the role of preferences and educative assets
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2010) Gamboa Niño, Luis Fernando; Rodríguez Acosta, Mauricio; García Suaza, Andrés Felipe
    This paper provides new evidence on the effect of pupil’s self-motivation and academic assets allocation on the academic achievement in sciences across countries. By using the Programme for International Student Assessment 2006 (PISA 2006) test we find that both explanatory variables have a positive effect on student’s performance. Self-motivation is measured through an instrument that allows us to avoid possible endogeneity problems. Quantile regression is used for analyzing the existence of different estimated coefficients over the distribution. It is found that both variables have different effect on academic performance depending on the pupil’s score. These findings support the importance of designing focalized programs for different populations, especially in terms of access to information and communication technologies such as internet.
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    Acción colectiva y políticas públicas
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2007) Villaveces-Niño, Marta-Juanita
    El presente documento hace una revisión de la literatura reciente (últimos 15 años) que vincula la acción colectiva con las políticas públicas. En particular se observan dos tendencias, de un lado, la defensa a la lógica de la acción colectiva señalando el tipo de incentivos que se deben crear para propiciar la cooperación y eventualmente tener resultados de políticas públicas, y aquellos que piensan que la acción colectiva depende de elementos psicológicos y sociales que no siempre garantizan una cooperación constante y que dificultan predecir lo que puede suceder en términos de políticas públicas. Al final se concluye que, si bien la lógica de la acción colectiva contribuye al análisis de las políticas públicas, aún falta un mejor entendimiento de las razones que motivan o frenan la cooperación y la manera como esta se construye en función de un problema colectivo que se puede o no convertirse en una política pública.
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    La administración cuantitativa del riesgo financiero en la provisión de un plan de salud
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2014-08-22) Castro, Carlos
    El diseño del sistema de seguridad social en salud y su efectiva implementación es uno de los más grandes retos de la sociedad, y a su vez es la principal garantía del goce efectivo del derecho a la salud. Un gran desafío de estos sistemas es la administración del riesgo financiero implícito en la provisión de los servicios de salud. Este documento ilustra en qué medida este desafío se puede enmarcar dentro de un problema de administración cuantitativa de los riesgos financieros. Si bien el uso de estas herramientas no son nuevas en el diseño del sistema de seguridad social en salud colombiano, es importante dar claridad sobre el alcance que han tenido estas herramientas, las posibles mejoras que se puedan hacer y los desafíos, en la gestión de estos riesgos, implícitos en la reforma actual de la institucionalidad del sistema.
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    Agricultural sector and competition in Colombia
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2007) Arguello, Ricardo; Lozano O., María Clara
    In this chapter we provide a summary description of Colombian Competition Policy with an emphasis on the agricultural sector. Key developments and recent changes in institutional arrangements affecting competition policy, as it applies to the agricultural sector, are highlighted. Illustrative case studies are depicted to show the richness and complexity of policy developments and enforcement. Some general conclusions are drawn from this examination.
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    Ahorro para el retiro en Colombia: patrones y determinantes
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2009) Guataquí, Juan; Rodríguez Acosta, Mauricio; García Suaza, Andrés Felipe
    La decisión de los individuos acerca del ahorro para el retiro ha sido abordada teóricamente bajo la hipótesis de que el sistema de seguridad social se comporta como un sustituto de otros mecanismos de ahorro. Este documento presenta evidencia de los patrones y determinantes del ahorro para el retiro en Colombia a partir de la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares de 2007. Los resultados muestran que el 63% de los ocupados declaran no ahorrar para su vejez. A partir de modelos de selección discreta se encuentra que individuos jóvenes, de sexo masculino, con menor nivel educativo, residentes en zonas rurales, y trabajadores cuenta propia, presentan menores probabilidades de ah orrar para el retiro; además las características socioeconómicas resultan significativas en la determinación del mecanismo de ahorro utilizado.
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    Allocation rules on networks
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2012) Ilkiliç, Rahmi; Kayi, Cagatay
    When allocating a resource, geographical and infrastructural constraints have to be taken into account. We study the problem of distributing a resource through a network from sources endowed with the resource to citizens with claims. A link between a source and an agent depicts the possibility of a transfer from the source to the agent. Given the supplies at each source, the claims of citizens, and the network, the question is how to allocate the available resources among the citizens. We consider a simple allocation problem that is free of network constraints, where the total amount can be freely distributed. The simple allocation problem is a claims problem where the total amount of claims is greater than what is available. We focus on consistent and resource monotonic rules in claims problems that satisfy equal treatment of equals. We call these rules fairness principles and we extend fairness principles to allocation rules on networks. We require that for each pair of citizens in the network, the extension is robust with respect to the fairness principle. We call this condition pairwise robustness with respect to the fairness principle. We provide an algorithm and show that each fairness principle has a unique extension which is pairwise robust with respect to the fairness principle. We give applications of the algorithm for three fairness principles: egalitarianism, proportionality and equal sacrifice.
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    An analysis of the relationship between wages in the public and private sector in colombia : a panel data approach
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2011) Otero, Jesus; Gamboa Niño, Luis Fernando; García Suaza, Andrés Felipe
    This document examines the time-series properties of the wage differentials that arise between the public and private sector in Colombia during the sample period 1984 to 2005. We Find conflicting results in unit-root and stationary tests when looking at wage differentials at an aggregate level (such as for men, women or both). However, when we analyse wage differentials at higher levels of disaggregation, treat them jointly as a panel of data, and allow for the presence of potential cross section dependence, there is more supportive evidence for the view that wage differentials are stationary. This implies that although wage differentials do exist, they have not been consistently increasing (or decreasing) over time.
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    An approximation to the digital divide among low income people in Colombia, Mexico and Perú: two composite indexes
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2008) Gutiérrez Ramírez, Luis Hernando; Gamboa Niño, Luis Fernando
    El estudio analiza los determinantes de uso y acceso a las tecnologías de información y comunicación en personas de bajos ingresos en pasases como Colombia, México y Perú. El punto central está en analizar las diferencias entre países de acuerdo a diferentes variables socioeconómicas. Se encuentra que la variable que más explica el nivel de acceso digital es la escolaridad. De otro lado no se encuentra una brecha por género sino en Perú. Los resultados también indican que cuando solo se tienen en cuenta las tecnologías más ‘avanzadas’, las diferencias entre la población son más notorias
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    An approximation to the informal-formal wage gap in Colombia 2008-2012
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2013) Daza, Nancy; Gamboa Niño, Luis Fernando
    This document provides recent evidence about the persistency of wage gaps between formal and informal workers in Colombia by using a non-parametric method proposed by Ñopo (2008a). Over a rich dataset at a household level during 2008-2012, it is found that formal workers earn between 30 to 60 percent more, on average, than informal workers. Despite of the formality definition - structuralist or institucionalist- adopted, it is clear that formal workers have more economic advantages than informal ones, but after controlling by demographic and labor variables an important fraction of the gap still remains unexplained.
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    An artificial economy based on reinforcement learning and agent based modeling
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2007) Lozano, Fernando; Lozano, Jaime; García, Mario
    In this paper, we employ techniques from artificial intelligence such as reinforcement learning and agent based modeling as building blocks of a computational model for an economy based on conventions. First we model the interaction among firms in the private sector. These firms behave in an information environment based on conventions, meaning that a firm is likely to behave as its neighbors if it observes that their actions lead to a good pay off. On the other hand, we propose the use of reinforcement learning as a computational model for the role of the government in the economy, as the agent that determines the fiscal policy, and whose objective is to maximize the growth of the economy. We present the implementation of a simulator of the proposed model based on SWARM, that employs the SARSA(λ) algorithm combined with a multilayer perceptron as the function approximation for the action value function.
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    An empirical note on factor shares
    (Universidad del Rosario, 2007) Zuleta, Hernando
    In this study, we propose an explanation for why labor and capital shares do not seem to have a trend: an increasing trend in physical capital share is compensated by a decreasing trend in land share. Similarly, an increasing trend in human capital share is compensated by a decreasing trend in raw labor share. We also find empirical support for the claim that the elasticity of output with respect to reproducible factors, human and physical capital, is positively correlated with the income level. This result has important implications for economic growth theory and for empirical exercises related to economic growth